Crop condition in Turkey was below average during the whole monitoring period. Maize and rice were planted at the end of the reporting period, while winter wheat was still growing. Rainfall, sunshine and temperature were somewhat below average (RAIN -1%, RADPAR -3%, TEMP -0.1°C), which lead to the average biomass accumulation potential (BIOMSS +1%). The cropped arable land fraction (CALF) decreased by 7% and the maximum VCI was 0.75. According to the spatial NDVI patterns map, crop condition was above average in and around the provinces of Ankara, Eskisehir, Afyon and Konya in the Central Anatolian region and some areas including the provinces of Gaziantep and Mardin in south-eastern Turkey. Consistently low NDVI between 0.1 and 0,.2 units below average prevailed in the east,  including the provinces of Diyarbakir and Erzincan. Overall,  the output of winter crops will be less than favorable. 

Regional analysis

The regional analysis cover four agro-ecological zones (AEZ): the Black Sea area, Central Anatolia, Eastern Anatolia and Marmara Aegean Mediterranean lowland zone.

In the Black Sea zone, the NDVI was close to and above average in February, but below in other months. Rainfall and sunshine were below average (RAIN -11%, RADPAR -1%). The biomass was average (BIOMSS +1%). VCIx reached 0.78 and CALF is down 7%. The output of crops will average or below.

The Central Anatolian region had below average NDVI during the reporting period, except for mid-February. Both rainfall and sunshine were below average (RAIN -5%, RADPAR -2%). The biomass production potential was average (BIOMSS +2%). CALF fell 8% below average, and the VCIx was 0.78. The condition of crops is assessed as average at best.

In the Eastern Anatolian plateau, the NDVI was above and close to average on the January and February, but below average in March and April. This zone experienced a shortage of rainfall and sunshine (RAIN -11%, RADPAR -6%), which result in a large decrease of CALF(-27%). The VCIx was low at 0.59. All indicators agree in describing crops as poor for this AEZ.

As shown by the NDVI profile in the Marmara Aegean Mediterranean lowland zone, the NDVI was below average during the whole reporting period. The temperature and radiation was below average (TEMP -0.3℃, RADPAR -4%) but rainfall exceeded average  by 12%. The CALF was average (+1%) and VCIx is the highest in the country. Crop production prospects are estimated to be at least average. 

Figure 3.29. Turkey crop condition, January-April 2019.

 (a)Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI         (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA              (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Black Sea region (left) and Central Anatolia region (right)) 

    (g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Eastern Anatolia region (left) and Marmara_Agean_Mediterranean lowland region (right))

Table 3.74. Turkey agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, January-April 2019.

Table 3.75. Turkey agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departurefrom 15YA/5YA, January-April 2019.