Only winter wheat was in the field during the reporting period since maize was harvested up to December and will be planted in April-May.

As shown by the national agroclimatic indicators, rainfall (RAIN, 210 mm) and radiation (RADPAR, 520 MJ/m2) were below the average by 4% and 1%, respectively, while temperature (2.9℃, +1.2℃) was much higher than the average. As a result of favorable temperature, potential biomass based on weather condition was forecast to  increase to 755 g DM/m2, 2% above the 15-year average. Agronomic indicators were normal for crop development, although cropped arable land fraction (CALF 72%, 10% below average) showed a decrease.  VCIx reached to 0.81, which was a relative high value indicating fair crop condition, with the lowest values occurring in central-northern areas.

The NDVI development curve at the national level suggests crop condition reached close to or above 5YA values after mid-March.  In 38.6% of arable land concentrated in north-east and east NDVI was well below average until mid-March. Since then, 68.3% of areas have reached at least average NDVI values with 31.7%, mainly in the west, at a moderately low values of -0.1 NDVI units.

In summary overall situation was fair for winter wheat but reduced areas will reduce output.

Regional analysis

Regional analyses are provided for four agro-ecological zones (AEZ) defined by their cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions. They are referred to as Central wheat area (184) with the Poltava, Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk and Kirovohrad Oblasts; Northern wheat area (186) with Rivne, Eastern Carpathian hills (185) with Lviv, Zakarpattia and Ivano-Frankivsk oblasts, and the Southern wheat and maize area (187) with Mykolaiv, Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts.

The Central wheat area recorded average rainfall (208 mm, -3%) and radiation (508 MJ/m2, -2%) but significant increased temperature (2.4℃, +1.1℃). Warm weather condition has benefited wheat growth and the biomass production potential increased by 9% (822 g DM/m2) as compared to 5-year average. Agronomic indicators show a low CALF (58%, -18%) and fair VCIx(0.75). Similar to national NDVI development trend, crop growth rapidly recovered to 5-year average since middle March. Production prospects are just average or below, mainly due to the drop in CALF.

The Northern wheat area received 2% higher than normal rainfall, normal radiation (-1%) and warmer temperature (2.5℃, +1.5℃), indicating 9% higher potential biomass. It had moderate CALF of only 68% (down 17% below 5YA) an a fair VCIx of 0.78. Cropped area was lower but crop condition was fair. The NDVI development curve has reached the 5-year average from mid-February. As in the previous AEZ, production prospects are just average or below.

The Eastern Carpathian hills experienced similar agroclimatic and agronomic condition as above two AEZs, normal rainfall (-3%)and radiation (-2%), but higher temperature (+1.2℃). The area had fair VCIx (0.74) and relatively better CALF (87%), a value nevertheless 10% below average. The  biomass production potential is up 7% and the NDVI development curve was about average. Crop production prospects are somewhat more favourable than in the two previous AEZs.

The Southern wheat and maize area was deficient in rainfall (-17%) with higher temperature of about 1.1℃ and average radiation (-0.3%), which led to 9% reduction in potential biomass. Agronomic indices were favorable with both high CALF (80%) and VCIx (0.88). The NDVI in the area was also marginally higher than last year and 5-year average since February. In spite of low rainfall, the crop condition in the area is assessed as average.

Figure 3.XX. Belarus crop condition, January - April 2019

 (a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                                      (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                                       (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Cebntral wheat area (left) and Northern wheat area (right))

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Eastern Carpathian hills (left) and Southern wheat and maize area (right))

Table 3.55. Ukraine agroclimatic indicators by agroecological zones, current season values and departure from 15YA, January- April 2019

Table 3.56. Ukraine agronomic indicators by agroecological zones, current season values and departure from 5YA/15YA,  January - April 2019