The reporting period covers the sowing of maize at the end of April and the end of winter dormancy and vernal re-growth of winter wheat. The national average VCIx was 1, the highest value on record; the cropped arable land fraction CALF increased by 64%. Among the CropWatch agroclimatic indicators, TEMP and RAIN were above average (1.4°C and 5%), while RADPAR was fell 10%. The combination of factors resulted in increased BIOMSS (9%) compared to the recent average. As shown by the NDVI development graph, crop condition was above the average of the previous five year average. Spatial NDVI clusters and profiles show that 58.8% of the agricultural areas enjoyed above average condition from February to late March in most parts of the Guliston, Mubarek, Qunghirot, Altynkul, Samarqand, Chimbay, Bekabad, Farish and Kasan provinces, as well as limited areas in the provinces of Kagan, Bukhoro, Quqon, Namangan, Andijon, Farghona and Beruni. Between March and late April,  59.1% of the agriculture areas had above average condition in most of the four eastern provinces, Urganch, Khiva, Tashkent, Gizhduvan, Navoiy, Kattakurgan, Guliston, Jizzakh and Bekabad provinces. Condition was below or average in remaining areas. Overall, crop condition was favorable.

Regional analysis

In the Eastern hilly cereals zone, NDVI was above the five-year average from January to late April. NDVI exceeded the five-year maximum throughout April. RAIN and TEMP were above average (6% and 1.3°C) and RADPAR was below average (10%).The combination of the factors resulted in high BIOMSS (+11% compared to average). The maximum VCI index was 1.02, and the cropped arable land fraction increased by 64%. The crop condition was favorable during monitoring period in this zone and a bumper crop is expected.

The Aral Sea cotton zone, crop condition was above compared with the five years average in January and close to the five average from February to late April. However, NDVI value was below 0.2 from January to April which indicates the absence of crops in this zone where cotton is the main commodity. Among the CropWatch agroclimatic indicators, accumulated rainfall and radiation were below average during the monitoring period (RAIN -6% and RADPAR -11%) but temperature was significantly above (TEMP +2.0°C). The BIOMSS index increased 2% compared to the fifteen-year average. The maximum VCI index was 0.91.

 Figure 3.43. Uzbekistan crop condition, January – April 2019

(a). Phenology of major crops

      (b)Crop condition developmentgraph based on NDVI      (c)Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to5YA           (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI Aral Sea cotton region(left) Eastern hilly cereals region (right)

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI Central region with sparse crops

Table 3.112.Uzbekistan’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season'svalues and departure from 15YA, January – April 2019

Table 3.113.Uzbekistan’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA/5YA, January – April 2019