Wheat was the major crop in the field during the monitoring period and spring wheat was sowed from March.

Rainfall deficit (-13%) with abundant sunshine (+9%) and a significantly increased temperature (+1.9℃) resulted in 13% higher than average potential biomass. Agronomic indicators show a satisfactory maximum vegetation condition index (VCIx 0.8) while the cropped arable land fraction (CALF) deceased 14% to 75%. The nationwide NDVI time plot was marginally higher than last year values from February and close to 5-year average from mid-March. The spatial patterns of NDVI profiles show that around 71% of cropped areas eventually reached 5-year average, except for some places in southeast and middle west (Gomel and Minsk Oblasts). In south-eastern and central areas (Mogilev and Minsk Oblasts) VCIx was between 0.5-0.8, while the value was above 0.8 in the west (Oblats of Grodno and Brest) . Overall, both agroclimatic and agronomic conditions were satisfactory, although the impact of warm weather on winter wheat is difficult to assess among others because high temperature has modified phenology and increased water consumption. Spring wheat is probably in good shape, with a risk of moisture deficit for both spring and winter wheat later in the season.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping system, climatic zones and topographic conditions, regional analyses  are provided for three agro-ecological zones (AEZ), including Northern Belarus (Vitebsk, northern area of Grodno, Minsk and Mogilev), Central Belarus (Grodno, Minsk and Mogilev and Southern Belarus which includes the southern halves of Brest and Gomel regions. 

Northern Belarus suffered a deficit in rainfall (-18%), while temperature  and radiation were well above average (+2.1℃ and +10%, respectively)  which resulted in a potential biomass increase of 13%. Agronomic indicators show that CALF fell 20%, while VCIx reached a moderate value (0.78). The Regional NDVI development curve was close to 5-year average since March, indicating moderate crop prospects.

Central Belarus also recorded a rainfall deficit (-12%) combined with abnormally high temperature (+1.8℃) and  radiation (+9%), VCIx at 0.83 and high CALF (81%). BIOMSS is up 12%. As in the previous AEZ, NDVI showed a "recovering trend" since March brought about by spring wheat emergence.

The situation in Southern Belarus was similar to the two previous areas, rainfall was below average (8%), while temperature and radiation were 1.8℃ and 4.3% above, respectively. Projected biomass would increase by 13%. Normal agronomic indicators (CALF  78%, VCIx 0.8) suggest crop development was fair so far.

Figure 3.XX. Belarus crop condition, January - April 2019

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                                      (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                                       (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (North Belarus (left), Center Belarus (right) )

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI South-west Belarus

Table 3.XX. Belarus agroclimatic indicators by agroecological zones, current season values and departure from 15YA, January - April 2019.

Table 3.XX. Belarus agronomic indicators by agroecological zones, current season values and departure from 5YA/15Ya, January - April 2019.