The reported period covers crop establishment, vegetative, reproductive, maturity and harvesting phase under rain-fed conditions for main cereal crops (maize, sorghum, millet). Harvesting of rain-fed crops started in April; their production was severely affected by rainfall deficits mostly during months of February and March. A decrease of cereal production is expected in the Southern, Western and parts of Central Provinces which account for close to one‑third of the national cereal output. After harvesting of rain-fed crops in April, large scale (commercial) farms prepare and plant irrigated winter wheat which give approximately 200,000 tonnes national annual production.

Any rainfall deficit during the sensitive phase of crop development greatly reduces agriculture production prospects. According to overall agroclimatic and agronomic indicators, the 2019 season, experienced decreased rainfall (14% below average), increased radiation (+2%) and a marginal temperature decrease (-0.1 degree Celsius) which led to decreased biomass production (-14%). This was reflected in the below average crop development condition throughout this period. This was observed by lower NDVI, despite the increased area under cultivation (CALF +12% 5YA Departure) and maximum VCI of 0.94. However, most of the cultivated area had maximum VCI varying from 0.8 to 1.0 except for the central and southern parts of the country experiencing maximum VCI between 0.5 to 0.8. The spatial distribution of NDVI profiles attest 35% - mainly northern parts which experienced positive NDVI Departures while the rest of the country and predominantly the central and southern parts suffered negative NDVI departures. The seasonal deficits in rainfall are the predominant factor in the unfavourable production as reflected in the NDVI profiles. Most of the cropped land in Southern, Lusaka and Western Provinces experienced stressed vegetation conditions especially in the month of March, hence a high likelihood of reduced crop harvest and yields. The poor rainfall establishment at the start of the season contributed to the reduced cropped land area.

In terms of the agro-ecological region analysis, all the agro-ecological regions received less annual rainfall than the expected 15YA with highest deviations (-26%, 15 YA Dep.) observed for the Luangwa and Zambezi Valleys (AEZ I), followed by Western Semi-Arid Plain (AEZ IIb), Central, Eastern and Southern (AEZ IIa) and minimal deviations (-2%, 15YA Dep.) for Northern High Rainfall Zone (AEZ III). This was reflected in the annual biomass production trends in the regions AEZ I (1131 gDM/m2: -22% 15YA Dep.) compared to AEZ III (1891 gDM/m2: +2% 15YA Dep.). However, the Cropped Arable Land Fraction (CALF) remained at 100% with negligible deviation from the 15YA (0%). Both the NDVI and BIOMASS showed a strong departure from 15YA, indicating reduced potential agricultural production in region AEZ IIa, AEZ IIb and AEZ I due mainly the reduced rainfall in these regions. 

CropWatch indicators point to the fact that poor harvest will affect food security particularly in the Southern Province, rural Lusaka and western parts of the country. Since it has become more evident that the rainfall received in recent times is lower than the 5YA, and this has caused severe food insecurity, an adaptation strategy would be to investment in water harvesting infrastructures to enable use of harvested rainfall water rationally during farming seasons.

Figure a: Crop condition development graph based on NDVI Zambia

Figure b: Maximum VCI

Figure c: Spatial distribution of NDVI profiles

Table 3.32. Zambia agroclimaticindicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departurefrom15YA, Jan-Apr2019

 Table 3.33. Zambia agronomicindicators by sub-national regions, current season's value and departure from 15YA/5YA, Jan-Apr2019