The monitoring period covers the growth and harvest of Maize and Rice and, the sowing and early growth of Wheat. Compared to average, the agroclimatic indicators for this period showed an increase in rainfall by about 27%. The rainfall profile for this period reveals high values during the end of January and Mid-March. The high rainfall recorded in mid-March is directly related to the IDAI cyclone which overwhelmed the country, particularly in the Buzi and Lower Zambezi river basins. This event caused floods which had a significant impact on crop conditions over these regions. Additional detail is provided in Chapter 5. Both temperature and radiation decreased by about 0.7°C and 1%, respectively. The agronomic indicators show an increase in Biomass (+4%) and the cropped arable land fraction (0.3%) over the country. The maximum VCI recorded for this period was 0.94.

The NDVI development graph indicates unfavourable crop conditions from February till the end of the monitoring period when compared to the past five-years average. According to the spatial NDVI above 5YA crop condition was observed in 24.3% of the total cropped area, most notably in Southern Tete and Northern Sofala. Besides, 14.7% of the cropped area had below average crop conditions during the entire monitoring period, which includes a sudden drop during mid-March, mostly in Sofala and Zambézia Provinces. The observed floods influenced the low crop conditions recorded over these areas. Despite the unfavourable crop conditions in most of the cropped areas, nationwide, better than average (VCIx was observed.

Floods affected mostly the central Provinces of Sofala and Manica. By March 26th, the inundated area was about 251,000 Ha (about 3.6% of the total country's cropland area). By April 9th, 158,000 Ha (corresponding to 1.4% of the total country's cropland area)  were still under water with crops completely lost. The floods did not have a significant impact on crop condition nationwide. The CropWatch estimated 2019 production to reach 2044 thousand tons for Maize and 374 thousand tons for Rice. This production corresponds to a variation of -2% and -0.5% for Maize and Rice, respectively, when compared to the year 2018.

Regional analysis

According to the cropping system, topography and climate, Mozambique is subdivided into five agro-ecological zones (AEZ), listed as follow: (1) Buzi basin (2) Northern high altitude areas (3) Low Zambezi basin (4) Northern coast and (5) Southern region.

During the monitoring period, except for Northern high altitude areas, the agro-ecological zones showed a significant increase in rainfall, and the Low Zambezi river basin and Buzi basin were the ones that stood out most with an increase in rainfall of about 49% and 52%, respectively. The rainfall profiles indicate that during mid-March, the recorded rainfall exceeded 350mm and 150mm in the Buzi basin and the Lower Zambezi basin, respectively. The temperature patterns recorded indicate a reduction in all agro-ecological zones, varying from -4.0°C to -1.0°C. The radiation has fell in all sub-regions except for the Northern Coast area.

The NDVI development graphs indicate that the crop condition was not favourable during almost the entire monitoring period in all agro-ecological zones, most notable in the Buzi basin and Lower Zambezi river basin which were the regions most affected by the floods. Nonetheless, in the Southern region, crop condition recovered at the end of April. The recorded rainfall influenced the Biomass index in these regions and the nearby regions as well. Again, the Lower Zambezi river basin is the one that stands out with an increase of about 12% over the average. The cropped arable land area (CALF) was close to the 5YA and VCIx ranges between 0.90 to 0.95.

Figure 3.31.Mozambique’scrop condition, January-April 2019

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                           (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI- Buzi basin (g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI- Northern high altitude areas

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI- Lower Zambezi River basin (i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI- Northern coast region

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI- Southern region (k) National rainfall profiles, January-April 2019

(l) Buzi basin rainfall profile, January-April 2019 (m) Low Zambezi river basin rainfall profile, January-April 2019

Table 3.53. Mozambique’s agroclimatic indicators by subnational regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, January-April 2019

Table 3.54. Mozambique's agronomic indicators by subnational regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA/5YA, January-April 2019