Kenya experiences a large variety of rainfall patterns, mostly referred to as long rain and short rain and resulting in similar cropping patterns: long rain maize and wheat, short rain maize.

Long rain maize was planted during the reporting period while short rain maize reached maturity and harvest. The rainfall recorded nationwide was 184mm, a significant drop of 40% below average. Temperature and RADPAR were above average by 0.1°C and 5%, respectively. The low precipitation led to reduced BIOMASS that dropped 39% below average. The cropped arable land fraction was reduced by 3%. The maximum VCIx value was 0.76. According to clusters and the map of NDVI profiles, crop condition was below average except during mid-January, which indicates a poor short rains crop at the time of harvest. This is confirmed by the national graph of crop condition development which stayed below average until the end of the reporting period. During the reported period, wheat and maize crops are expected from the major production areas. However, the spatial NDVI patterns indicate that NDVI was below average in many central areas. This spatial pattern only partially reflected by VCIx, the national average of which reached 0.87, with low values in pastoral areas of the Rift Valley (Laikipia, Nakuru and Trans-Nzioia, where wheat is an important production) but also some Western area (for instance from Bungoma, where maize and cattle are the main-stays of the agricultural economy).

Generally, due to the rainfall deficit, the agronomic indicators mentioned above show less than average conditions for some important crop areas of Kenya.

Regional analysis

Considering the cropping system, climatic zones and topographic conditions we divided this country into four agro-ecological zones (AEZ): The Coast, Highland agriculture zone, northern rangelands, and south-west.

The Coast includes the districts of Kilifi, Kwale and Malindi. It recorded low rainfall, 31 mm, 80% below average while TEMP and RADPAR were above average (0.1°C and +6%). The total biomass production was below average by -71% compared to 5YA. The NDVI profile was also below average with marked fluctuations at the start of the reporting period. Throughout the reporting period, maximum VCIx was 0.79 with CALF at 95%. Overall, the coastal area, where the rainy season is just starting, had conditions unfavorable for livestock and crops.

In the mostly temperate Highland agriculture zone NDVI was above average during January but then dropped to below average until the end of the reported period. At 187 mm rainfall was 38% below average. The temperature and sunshine were up (TEMP +0.1°C, RADPAR +6%) and BIOMASS was down 41% below average. The CALF (91%) was 4% below average. The maximum VCIx value was recorded at 0.75. In general, based on all CropWatch indicators the crop condition is assessed as unfavorable where VCIx was low.

The northern rangelands recorded scarce of rainfall with RAIN at 85 mm, or 51% below average, affecting districts such as Turkana, Samburu, and Baringo. The deficit leads to a decrease in the total biomass production (BIOMASS down 46%). The temperature was above average by 0.6°C and RADPAR slightly up by 3%. The NDVI development curve shows values below the five years average during the entire monitoring period. The maximum VCI was low compare to other regions at 0.58.  The cropped arable land fraction also decreased (CALF, -22%). Since the region is mostly pastoral the prevailing conditions had a negative effect on livestock production.

The South-west districts include Kisumu, Migori, Siaya, and Busia. Those districts are major producers of wheat and maize, which are in full growth. The total amount of rainfall was high (327 mm) but still 35% below average, leading to a reduction of total biomass production (-24%). The temperature was average (-0.1°C departure) and RADPAR was 3% above. While the Cropped arable land fraction remained constant. The NDVI based crop condition development shows there were fluctuations values during the monitoring period. The maximum VCI was reached 0.79. The expected production is average at best in the North and still favorable in the South.

Region

RAIN

TEMP

RADPAR

Current (mm)

Departure from 15YA(%)

Current(oc)

Departure from  15YA(oc)

current (MJ/m2)

Departure from 15 YA(%)

Coastal 

31

-80

29.1

0.1

1411

4

Highland agriculture zone

187

-38

22.5

0.1

1407

6

Northern rangelands

85

-51

28.8

0.6

1361

3

South-west

327

-35

22.0

-0.1

1362

3

Region

BIOMASS

Cropped Arable land fraction

Maximum VCI

Current (gDM/m2)

Departure from 5YA(%)

Current

Departure from 5YA(%)

Current

 Coastal 

151

-71

95

5

0.79

Highland agriculture zone

546

-41

91

-4

0.75

Northern rangelands

306

-46

61

-22

0.58

 South-west 

1162

-24

99

0

0.79