This reporting period is the main growing season of winter wheat, sown between October and December. Spring and summer crops, including maize and rice, were planted from the end of April.

Nationwide, early NDVI values were below average (around 0.5) and started increasing after February, a situation similar to what happened in 2018. In April, values started to rise over 2018 and exceeded the  average , eventually reaching the maximum of 5 years at the end of the reporting period. NDVI was above average in 25.4% of the arable land, mainly in the south of the country.  20.6% of was below the average and occurred mostly in northern Basilicata and southern Lombardy. Remaining areas were around the average. Rainfall was well below average (-24%), the temperature was average and RADPAR was 9% above average. BIOMSS dropped 19% but VCIx was satisfactory (0.94) with CALF increased about 1.4%. Overall crop condition in the country is about average.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, four sub-national regions can be distinguished for Italy: East coast, Po Valley, Islands and Western Italy.

On the East coast, RAIN and TEMP were average (+ 3% and -0.2°C compared with average), but RADPAR was high  (+8%). Overall condition of wheat was about average with BIOMSS up 3%, VCIx at 0.93 with a high CALF value of  0.99. The crop condition development graph of NDVI indicates that initially poor conditions developed into average ones from April. The output is expected to be average.

The Po Valley recorded insufficient rainfall, average temperature and RADPAR with high VCIx and CALF, resulting in below average biomass production potential: RAIN -29%, TEMP +0.5°C, RADPAR 9%, BIOMSS -24%, VCIx 0.99 and CALF 99%. The crop condition development graph of NDVI indicates condition better than the 5 years average after March and even above the maximum after April. This represents a spectacular recovery considering that initial NDVI values were below 0.4. Below average to average output is expected, depending largely on late spring weather.

In the Islands, the combination of a severe precipitation shortage (-38%), average TEMP (-0.6%) and above average RADPAR (+7%) led to a BIOMSS drop of 31% compared with the average. VCIx was satisfactory  (0.91) and CALF was high (99%). The crop condition development graph of NDVI indicates below 5YA values. Generally, below average output is expected.

The situation in Western Italy was almost normal (TEMP, VCIx 0.90, CALF 99%) but sunshine was high (+9%) and RAIN was low (-20%). BIOMSS fell -16%. NDVI was below average as well and below average production is expected. 

If the water supply improves after April, the winter wheat production could be satisfactory.

Figure3.24. Italy crop condition, January -April 2019

Figure3.24a. Italy phenology of major crops

Figure3.24b. Italy national level crop condition development graph based on NDVI,comparing the January -April 2019 period to the previous season and the five-year average (5YA) and maximum

Figure3.24c. Italy maximum VCI for January -April 2019 by pixel

Figure3.24d. Italy spatial NDVI patterns up to April 2019 according to local cropping patterns and compared to 5YA (left) and (e) associated NDVI profiles (right)

Figure3.24f. East coast (Italy) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure3.24g. Po Valley (Italy) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure3.24h. Islands  (Italy) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure3.24i. Western Italy (Italy) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Table3.45  Italy agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, currentseason values and departure from 15YA, January -April 2019

Table 3.46 Italy agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season values and departure from 5 YA/15YA, January -April 2019