Winter wheat was growing and maize was planted during the reporting period. The CropWatch agroclimatic indicators show that the rainfall (RAIN) was well 39% below the average with no significant change in the temperature (TEMP) compared with average. The estimated RADPAR was slightly above the average (by 3% increase), while the BIOMSS was significantly down (36%) due to the drop in the rainfall. The CALF was  average but low (58%).

Nationwide, NDVI showed above average values until mid-February. Crop condition then  dropped below the 5YA until the end of the reporting period. The same pattern is confirmed at the sub-national level: only 13.4% of the total cropped area remained above average during the whole reporting period. The VCIx ranged between moderate (0.5 – 0.8) to high (0.8 -1.0) for most regions except the central part of Souss-Massa and Guelmim-Oued Noun Provinces and the coastal part of the Oriental Province where the VCIx was low (< 0.5). Nationwide, the estimated VCIx was moderate (0.8). Altogether, CropWatch estimates depict fair crop conditions.  

Regional analysis

Based on the cropping system, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, four sub-national agro-ecological regions (AEZs) can be distinguished for Morocco. Only three of them are relevant for crops: Sub-humid northern highlands including central Centre-Nord Region and northen Centre-Sud, Warm semi-arid zone covering the regions of Nord-Oriental and the broad Tensift TRegion, and Warm sub-humid zone of the Nord-Ouest Region.

The agroclimatic indicators for the three AEZs show a high reduction in rainfall (-34%, 40% and 43%, respectively) with about average temperature (departures between -0.1°C and +0.1°C). RADPAR was slightly above average (3% to 4%) for the three zones. The agronomic indicators showed a 35% to 40% reduction in the estimated BIOMSS. The CALF was above the average for the first and third zones (5 and 6%, respectively) but 11% below the average for the second zone. Also, the maximum VCI was high (0.9) for the first and the third zone but moderate (0.7) for the second, the Warm semi-arid zone.

The NDVI development graphs follow the same pattern as the nationwide NDVI-based graph: condition of crops was first above average and then dropped to be below average. The difference between zones was in the time when the crop conditions turned to be below average.:  March for Sub-humid northern highlands, end of January for Warm semi-arid zones, and end of February for Warm sub-humid zones.

                                                              (a) Phenology of major crop

       (b) Crop condition development graph based on NDV                  (c) Maximum VCI 

    (d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                          (e) NDVI profiles

    (g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Sub-humid northern highlands (left), and (Warm semiarid zones (right).

    (h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Warm subhumid zones)

Table 3.45. Morocco’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, January-April 2019.

Table 3.46. Morocco’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, January-April 2019.