This section analyzes the import and export situation of the maize, rice, wheat, and soybean in the first quarter of 2019 in China.

Maize

In the first quarter of 2019, maize imports reached 981.9 ktons, an increase of 76.2% over 2018. The main suppliers were Ukraine and Russia, accounting for 97.7% and 1.7% of imports respectively. Imports amounted to 212 million USD. The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea was the only destinations of Chinese maize exports, which reached 1.5 ktons. The value of the export was 389.6 thousand USD.

Rice

In the first quarter, the total import of rice in China was 586.4 ktons, a decrease of 24.4% compared to the previous year. The imported rice mainly stems from Thailand, Pakistan, Cambodia and Vietnam, accounting for 41.0%, 33.6%, 12.9% and 4.7% of imports respectively. The expenditure for rice import was 328 million USD. Total rice exports over the period were 479.2 ktons, mainly exported to Egypt, Côte d'Ivoire, Turkey and the Republic of Korea (accounting for 38.6%, 13.4%, 9.7% and 7.5%, respectively). The value of the exports was 190 million USD.

Wheat

Chinese wheat and wheat products imports in the first quarter of 2019 totaled 1 million tons, up by 60.8% year-on-year. The main sources include Canada (65.5%) , Kazakhstan (9.8%), and the United States (4.1%). Imports amounted to 318 million USD. Wheat and wheat products exports 70.6 kilotons went mainly to the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (70.1%) and Chinese Hong Kong (22.7%). The generated income for wheat and wheat products exports was 27 million USD.

Soybean

In the first quarter of 2019, the total import of soybean decreased by 14.4% to 16.75 million tons. Brazil, the United States and Argentina respectively contributed 58.0%, 15.2% and 12.8%, for a total value of 7279 million USD. Soybean exports were 33.5 ktons, up 8.8%.

Trade prospects for major cereals and oil crop in China for 2019

Based on the latest monitoring results, China crop imports are projected to increase. The projections are based on remote sensing data and the Major Agricultural Shocks and Policy Simulation Model, which is derived from the standard GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project).

Maize

According to the model forecast, maize imports will increase by 12.4% in China in 2019, while its exports will be basically flat. At present, the global maize supply and demand situation continues to maintain the loose posture, the price continues to drop. Domestic maize prices have stopped falling and stabilized recently, with a rising trend in the later stage. It is expected that China's maize imports will further increase in 2019.

Rice

According to the model forecast, rice imports and exports will increase by 8.1% and 15.6% respectively in 2019. With the increase of labor and other production costs, China's rice production competitiveness continues to decline, which directly affects the amount of rice imports. It is expected that China's rice imports will slightly increase in 2019, but still within the quota range.

Wheat

According to the model forecast, wheat imports will increase by 19.7%, while exports will decrease by 5.2%. Wheat imports are expected to increase slightly in 2019 as global supplies remain ample, prices continue to weaken and the spread between domestic and foreign prices widen. However, with the further improvement of domestic wheat quality, wheat imports will continue to decline in the future.

Soybean

According to the model forecast, China's soybean imports will decrease by 2.4% in 2019, while exports will slightly increase by 1.1%. Affected by the supply-side structural reform of agriculture, China's soybean planted area should continue to increase, and the external dependence will further decrease. However, soybean imports will remain high. In 2019, China's soybean imports are expected to decline, but will be affected by economic and trade friction and other factors of uncertainty.

Figure 4.14. Rate of change of imports and exports for rice, wheat, maize, and soybean in China in 2019 compared to those for 2018(%)