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According to the WMO report, 2018 was thefourth warmest year on record and 2015–2018 were the four warmest years onrecord; the long-term warming trend continues: ocean heat content is at arecord high and global mean sea level continues to rise while Arctic andAntarctic sea-ice continues melting. Extreme weather had an impact on lives andsustainable development on every continent with average global temperature nowabout 1°C above pre-industrial levels. Most worryingly: we are not on track tomeet climate change targets and temperature increases are literally out ofcontrol, gradually eroding many habits of wasteful use of climate resources.This year, for instance, after the “day zero” alert in Cape Town during 2018,similar situations of urban water shortage risks have been developing inAustralia.

For the current reporting period, the maindisasters in terms of their human impact include the continued droughtconditions in the Horn of Africa and southern Africa, western Asian floods atthe end of March and April (Afghanistan, Iran and Pakistan), and especially thetwo tropical cyclones (Idai and Kenneth) which struck Mozambique in April. Itis a constant observation among many flooded areas during the reporting periodthat floods are made worse when they occur after prolonged periods of drought,illustrating the fact that flood and drought management plans need to bedeveloped concomitantly (see below).

Extreme conditions by type

Drought and fires

Up to the impact of cyclones Idai andKenneth in the western areas of southern Africa, the prevailing situation wasone of drought, affecting mostly southern Angola, southern Zambia, the northernhalf of Namibia and the north of Zimbabwe, with the situation described assevere by FEWSNET in south-west Angola and adjacent north-west Namibia and theborder area between Zambia and Zimbabwe. In Namibia, close to 150,000 peoplelived in drought affected regions at the beginning of the reporting period,according to UNICEF.

In the Horn of Africa many populationscontinue to suffer from the precarious situation that developed during in 2018and during the previous reporting period, including south-east Ethiopia andsouth-east South Sudan and the northern half of Uganda. According to FAO/SWALIMreports, large parts of the central and northern regions in Somalia weresuffering from abnormally dry conditions and river flows were below average andbelow the values recorded during the two previous seasons. ReliefWeb reportedat the beginning of April that 1.5 million people were in IPC phase 3 or 4.According to FEWSNET, rainfall was insufficient (except in the south) duringApril, which coincides with the beginning of Gu season (April-June). In Kenya,the condition of pastures kept declining in 15 districts of the semi-arid areasduring February, according to the Bulletin issued by the National DroughtManagement Authority

Drought is also reported in March-Aprilfrom the Dominican Republic and over the western coastal areas of Panama, CostaRica and Nicaragua and from the Southern Island of New Zealand where firesdestroyed 2500 Ha of vegetation in the first half of February. Still inOceania, Western Australia and the Northern Territory had the warmest March onrecord at +2.1°C above average, in spite of some cooling brought about by twosevere tropical cyclones (Trevor and Veronica), which also affected Queensland.Bush-fires affected the east of Victoria, destroying more than 10000 Ha ofbush. In Tasmania, 3% of the area was burned (200000 Ha). Elderly people andwildlife were affected severely. At the end of April and early May, the damssupplying Sydney, Darwin, Melbourne and Brisbane had reached critical levelsclose to 50% of capacity and water conservation measures had to be implemented.

The general area covering western Iran,Pakistan and Afghanistan has been suffering from dry conditions during thewinter crop season. In Pakistan, dry conditions prevailed mostly overnorth-west Baluchistan. According to Muslim Aid, 270,000 Families and 3.5million heads of cattle were affected in 18 districts of Baluchistan. Thedrought manifests itself by falling water levels in wells which have not beenreplenished due to shortage of rains over several years. In early March, theInternational Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies reported“Alarmingly high rates of disease and malnutrition in drought-affected areas”in Pakistan, especially southern Sindh and Baluchistan. Due to shortage ofirrigation water, the food production in the affected areas was reported to bedown about one third compared with average years.

Before the cyclone hit the province(Manicaland), the area had been classified as IPC 3 due to drought, with somelimited areas in IPC 4 (Buhera district, north-east of Chimanimani andChipinge). Next to water stressed crops in the field, which had reachedharvest, stored food and cattle suffered as well.

Cold weather and severe winter conditions

Algeria suffered from several episodes ofcold weather which started in January 2019; two of them occurred from 4 - 7February (affecting 15 Departments) and from 21-22 March, affecting 5Departments. About 800 families were affected.

Tropical cyclones, storms, tornadoes, heavy rainfalland floods

More than 20,000 families (about 100,000people) suffered from flash floods in Philippine Region XI (Davao Oriental) atthe beginning of February. During mid to late to mid-February, floods affectedCalifornia while in Colombia, the end of February suffered floods when the SanJuan and other rivers in the Chocò department made more than 3000 familieshomeless; at the end of April, the south-western Department of Nariño sufferedfrom floods affecting 5,500 families.

From 8 to 12 February an estimated 500000heads of cattle died due to floods in Queensland (which is about 5% of theState’s livestock population) due to rainfall with a return period of about 1in 500 years, after prolonged drought.

Just after mid-March, cyclone Trevordestroyed 85 houses in Papua New Guinea, where 15,000 people faced foodshortages. In the western half of the Island (Eastern Indonesia) flash floodsand landslides killed at least 50 people in Papua province.

The United States were struck by severalextreme events, including at the beginning of March in Alabama where a tornadokilled 23. Nebraska had floods around mid-April while in the Southern UStornadoes and floods left 6 people dead in Texas (especially in the centralTexan town of Franklin), Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas and Georgia.

Cyclones are a relatively rare occurrencein continentalsouthern Africa, with the exception of Madagascar. In 2000, forinstance, cyclone Eline affected Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia, and Zimbabwethrough heavy rainfall, but there has been no prior occurrence of a disasterlike the one caused by Idai. The cyclone first made landfall on 4 March in the northof the country (Figure 5.1), but then moved back into the Mozambique channelwhere it gained strength and eventually turned west again when it hit centralMozambique on 14 March, then Zimbabwe and Malawi the following day. Atleast1000 people were killed directly, more than half (602) in Mozambique.1.85million people are in need of assistance in Mozambique, of which 1.7millionneed urgent food supplies in Sofala, Manica, Tete and Zambeziaprovinces. The disaster occurred at the time close to harvest; destroying manycrops that had previously been struck by drought (2.4 million Zimbabweans arein need of food aid due to drought).

Figure 5.1 Track of cyclone Idai

Secondary source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/mar/23/families-stranded-without-aid-in-wake-of-mozambique-cyclone; Primarysource: GDACS

According to the International Federationof Red Cross and RedCrescent Societies, 90 % of the area of Central Mozambiqueand Beira was “destroyed” (Figure 5.2), including houses, food, communicationsand roads. Indirect deaths due to landslides and diseases include at least 180people in Zimbabwe, in Chipinge and especially in Chimanimani district, where15,000 peoplewere affected (Figure 5.3). In Malawi, Mozambique and Zimbabwe thedamage isestimated by the World-bank at US$ 2 billion in terms of recoverycosts of infrastructure and livelihoods. In particular, the infrastructurewas damaged in the Beira corridor which connects the harbour of Beira with Zimbabwe,Malawi and Zambia, affecting the supply of food, fuel and other goods in theregion.

Figure 5.2 Destruction in Beirafollowing cyclone Idai.

Source: https://media.ifrc.org/ifrc/press-release/mozambique-cyclone-90-per-cent-beira-surrounds-damaged-destroyed/

Five weeks after Idai, in the final days ofApril, cyclone Kenneth hit mostly the Comoros archipelago (185,000 affected)and, in Mozambique (200,000 affected), the northern area of Cabo Delgado, especiallyIbo Island and the coastal districts of Macomia and Quissanga. Wind speedsreached 220 km/h; 38 people died and flash floods contaminated boreholes,especially on Ibo. Kenneth led toabundant rain in parts of South Africa but largely spared southern Tanzania. 70people are reported dead in KwaZulu-Natal province, including some in EasternCape Province due to mudslides. On Comoros Island, ACAPS reported on 30 Aprilthat the cyclone had severe impacts on livelihoods as an estimate of 60-80% ofstaple crops have been destroyed and over 1600 livestock lost. 45,000 peoplewere affected and 10,000 houses were destroyed.

Interestingly, both Idai and Kenneth causedlimited damage in Madagascar.

Figure 5.3 Satellite-based assessmentof the extent of Idai flooded land in south-east Zimbabwe.

Approximate coordinates of the centre of the map: 32.85833°E and20.05694°S. Based on a Disaster Charter map available athttps://disasterscharter.org/image/journal/article.jpg?img_id=1553526&t=1553179274100

Repeated episodes of floods-over-droughtaffected Afghanistan: on 6 March 20 died in 8 provinces including Kandahar, ata time when 13 million people were food insecure and just under 4 million onthe verge of famine due to drought and violence, with over 250,000 displacedpeople. Livestock suffered badly from the excess water.

Later in March and early April widespreadfloods occurred again in a larger area in western Asia, in northern Pakistan,west Afghanistan, Turkmenistan and especially west Iran. The timing coincidedwith Nowruz, the Persian New Year, when families reunite and extensivelytravel. Khuzestan province and most of South-west Iran were particularlyseverely hit. Floods affected four fifths of the country’s 31 provinces, mostlyin the western half bordering Afghanistan and Pakistan. All three countries hadpreviously experiencing rainfall shortages, which worsened the impact of floodsand landslides. 78 people died in Iran, 1140 were injured with tens of thousandsdisplaced, and many houses, roads and bridges destroyed in about a 1/3 of thenational road network (including highways). According to FAO, the most affectedprovinces include, next to Khuzestan, also Mazandaran, Golestan and Lorestanand Khuzestan, just before the harvest of the main winter wheat crop and at thetime when summer crops are emerging. Damage in the agricultural sector isestimated at US% 1.5 billion and between 2 and three times more globally. Atmid-April, ReliefWeb estimated that 12 million people were affected, with 2million in need of direct assistance and 370,000 displaced. 65,000 houses weredestroyed and more than 110,000 were damaged.

Figure 5.4 Afghan Red Crescent Society volunteers rescuing people affected by the floods.

Source: http://adore.ifrc.org/Download.aspx?FileId=233279.

In neighboring Afghanistan,the New Humanitarian reported at the end of March that flash floods that sweptaway thousands of homes (Figure 5.4) and killed dozens in the two north-westernprovinces of Herat and Badghis, and seven more provinces, with more than 280,000 people affected and 63 killed, not tomention innumerable sheep. According to the Afghan Red Crescent Society, morethan 650,000 people lack basic needs, including sanitation and health care and1.6 million children suffering acute malnutrition.

Sources:

http://adore.ifrc.org/Download.aspx?FileId=233279

http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-19-1733_en.pdf

http://fews.net/sites/default/files/documents/reports/Somalia_Seasonal_Monitor_05_03_2019_final.pdf

http://unosat-maps.web.cern.ch/unosat-maps/MZ/TC20190312MOZ/UNOSAT_A3_Natural_Portrait_TC20190312MOZ_cumulative.pdf

http://www.fao.org/giews/countrybrief/country.jsp?code=IRN

http://www.faoswalim.org/resources/site_files/Update%20and%20Impacts%20of%20Deyr%202018%20Rainfall%20in%20Somalia.pdf

http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/africa/2019-03/23/c_137918241.htm

https://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL8N21D1S5

https://disasterscharter.org/image/journal/article.jpg?img_id=1553526&t=1553179274100

https://disasterscharter.org/web/guest/activations/-/article/cyclone-in-zimbabwe-activation-599-

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/144739/floods-and-landslides-in-chimanimani