The current CropWatch bulletin is based mainly on remotely sensed data for both climatic and crop condition data. It focuses on crops that were either growing or harvested between April and July 2019. The bulletin covers prevailing weather conditions, including extreme factors, at different spatial scales, starting with global patterns in Chapter 1. Chapter 2 focuses on agro-climatic and agronomic conditions in major production zones in all continents. Chapter 3 covers the major agricultural countries that, together, make up at least 80% of production and exports (the “top 30”) while chapter 4 zooms into China. Detailed data and narratives about national crops and environmental conditions are exposed in both chapters. Special attention is paid to the major producers of maize, rice, wheat, and soybean. The bulletin then presents a global production estimate for crops to be harvested throughout 2019 (Chapter 5.1), revised from our first estimate published in May; 90% of the current estimates are based on modeled data and 10% are based on statistical projections. Subsequent sections of Chapter 5 describe the global disasters that occurred from April to July 2019.

This bulletin is issued at a time when almost all winter crops in the northern hemisphere, including China, have been harvested and summer crops are in their late stages; in the southern hemisphere winter crops are growing and the planting of the summer season/monsoon season will start in a month or so.

Agro-climatic conditions

According to the analyses presented in Chapter 1, prevailing climate conditions during the current 2019 AMJJ reporting period were closer to average1 than during a long series of previous CropWatch reporting periods: global rainfall was 4% below average, which compares with 9% above average in 2017 and 5% in 2018. Significant continental differences are nevertheless observed, with large rainfall deficits in Oceania (-30%), moderate deficits in East Asia and in South Asia (-12% and -13%, respectively) and large positive anomalies in north America (+19%) and central Asia (+20%).  The large positive rainfall anomaly in central Asia extends into the Middle-East and semi-arid northern Africa and seems to have become a permanent feature. Specific countries to be listed for their precipitation anomalies include the United States (+29% compared with average), Tajikistan (+72% compared with average), Syria (+99%), Iraq (+138%) and Turkmenistan (+142%).   

The largest area of spatially consistent positive temperature anomalies occurred in Eurasia and was centred around the Baltic states, extending into western Russia and western Europe. Many countries of the area experienced above average conditions for biomass production due to unusually high sunshine. Above average temperature and below average rainfall affected south and south-east Asia, including the three major rice exporters (India, Thailand and Vietnam).

Global production

CropWatch estimates the global 2019 production of the major commodities at 1045 million tonnes of maize, down 0.5% from 2018, 736 millions for rice (up 1.7%), 703 million tonnes of wheat (a 1.4% increase) and 323 million tonnes of soybeans, 1.2% lower than last year’s output.

The current estimate is pessimistic compared with assessments issued by CropWatch over the recent cropping seasons: maize and soybean performed poorly in the Unites States due to very unusual weather conditions. For the major producers, the current production estimate is below the trend for maize (-0.1% Vs. 3.1%), wheat (1.5% Vs. 2.3%) and soybean (-1.0% Vs. 4.9%), but above for rice (1.9% Vs. 1.2%) due to relatively more favorable environmental conditions in southern and south-east Asia than in the temperate northern hemisphere.

The two top global maize producers did poorly: the USA at 364 million tonnes, a value comparable to the output of 2018; China with 217 million tonnes, 2% down from 2018. Brazil and especially Argentina did well for all crops, including maize (+3% and +7%, respectively). A drop in paddy (rice) production is listed for several major South-east Asian producers, including Thailand and Vietnam (both down 2% from 2018). The largest increases are listed for Iran (+10%) and Pakistan (+12%) and India and Bangladesh (+6% each) and, outside the Asia continent, +9% in Argentina. Poor performance for wheat occurs on all continents, starting with several countries of the general European and Mediterranean area due to unusual spring and summer conditions. Production drops also affect Australia (-10%), South Africa (-8%) and Kazakhstan (-11%).  Production is up in Argentina (+7%), Egypt (+9%), Pakistan (+10%) and Mexico (+17%). Soybean production increased among four out of five top producers: Brazil (+3%), Argentina (+9%), China (+3%) and India +27%. The first producer, the USA, dropped second this year (down 13% from last year) due to very unusual weather conditions and reduction of soybean planted area. The situation may lead to some alteration of recent trade patterns as the balance of soybean availability between the top exporters and top importers indicates a shortage larger than 7 million tonnes, different scenarios are possible – including no impact – depending, among others, on the development ofthe current African swine fever outbreak in China.

China

This bulletin covers the peak of the agricultural season for most of China. Summer harvested crops, of which winter wheat accounts for more than 90% are put at 128 million tons, up 1.4% or 1.2 million tons compared to 2018. Autumn harvested crops (including maize, single rice, late rice, spring wheat, soybean, minor cereals, and tubers) are estimated by CropWatch to reach 455 million tons, down 0.5% or 2.1 million.

The total output of maize was down by 2.1% to 217 million tons, which is 46 million tons less than that in 2018. The yield decreased by 1.7% nationwide, resulting from production drops in the three main producing provinces of Heilongjiang (-0.2%), Jilin (-3.0%) and in the Autonomous Region of Inner Mongolia (-5.0%) in spite of increased yield. Rice production reached 199 million tons, up 0.8% from 2018, resulting mostly from increased hectarage (+0.6). In Jiangsu and Anhui, the main rice producing provinces, areas increased by 2.3% and 1.0% respectively. Due to favorable weather which resulted in a 1.2% increase in yield,  the production of mid-season rice/one-season rice was up by 1.3%. The output of wheat reached 124 million tons, up 1.6%.  The increase of production in Henan (1.224 million tons) and in  Shandong (724 million tons) resulted from both area and yield being up above their 2018 values. The national soybean output reached 14.4 million, up 2.9%. This has been the fourth consecutive year for the increase of land under soybean. Heilongjiang accounts for 52% of the increase. Soybean suffered from drought in Shandong and Shanxi, resulting in yield drops of 9.1% and 12.6% respectively.