Wheat and barley, the main cereal crops of Australia, are usually planted from May to July and harvested from October to January. The monitored period thus covers only the beginning of the sowing season with few or no crops in the field for most of the reporting period.

The national NDVI profile shows overall average conditions with average temperature (TEMP +0.4°C) and sunshine (RADPAR +3%). Although the rainfall decreased by 29% compared to average, it did not affect the sowing of wheat and barley possibly due irrigation. The VCIx was rather low at 0.29 during the planting season. The Cropped Arable Land Fraction (CALF) decreased by 11%, compared to the five-year average.

The spatial NDVI pattern further shows that southern New South Wales, northern Victoria, and the south-eastern part of South Australia experienced below-average conditions throughout the monitoring period, compared to the last 5 years due to the poor rainfall (RAIN, -49% for New South Wales and -13% for Victoria and -18% for South Australia).

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, five sub-national regions can be distinguished for Australia, which are relevant for crops cultivation: the Arid and semi-arid zone, the South-eastern wheat zone, Sub-humid subtropical zone, South-western wheat zone,  and the Wet temperate and subtropical zone.

The South-eastern wheat zone showed average to above-average conditions, which closely followed the national NDVI profile. The region recorded rises in temperature (+0.5°C) and RADPAR (+4%). Although rainfall experienced a severe 24% deficit, BIOMSS was average. CALF decreased by 6% compared to the 5-year average.

The south-western wheat zone showed below-average condition throughout the monitoring period according to the regional NDVI profile. The region had a weak rainfall deficit (-15%), above average RADPAR (+5%) and a negative TEMP anomaly (-0.5°C) which led to the below-average crop condition. CALF decreased by 9%, compared to the 5-year average. The situation is confirmed by the NDVI cluster maps in the Western Australia region.

The crop condition in the country's arid and semi-arid zone displayed average values during the whole time period. The region experienced insufficient rainfall (-37%), again combined with average TEMP (+0.2°C) and RADPAR (0%). However, the CALF was 76%, and VCIx reached 0.83, indicating that lower rainfall has not caused apparent adverse effect on the crops.

The crop condition in the wet temperate and subtropical zone appeared marginally above average according to the regional NDVI profile during the current monitoring period: below average in April but quickly rising to exceed the 5-year average from May to July. The region was 28% short in rainfall with marginally above average temperature (TEMP +0.3°C) and radiation (+2%). The area had high CALF (98%) with low VCIx (0.38), indicating a stable cropped area but moderate prospects.

Crops in Australia's sub-humid subtropical zone showed generally below average condition during the whole monitored period, which was possibly related to the extreme drought, reflected by the following agro-climatic conditions: rainfall deficit of 52% with high temperature (+0.8°C) and RADPAR (+4%), resulting in BIOMSS falling 6%. The area also experienced low CALF (45%), indicating below-average cropped area and unfavorable production prospects, which deserves close monitoring in the coming months.

On the whole, CropWatch estimates the prospects of wheat and barley in Australia will be average at this sowing stage.

Figure 3.6. Australia crop condition, April 2019-July 2019

(a).Phenology of major crops

(b)Crop condition development graph based on NDVI         (c) Maximum VCI

(d)Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                       (e)NDVI profiles

(f)Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Southeastern wheat zone (left) and Southwestern wheat zone (right))

(g)Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Arid and semi-arid zone (left) and Wet temperate and subtropical zone (right))

(h)Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Subhumid subtropical zone)

(i)Time series rainfall profile (left) and temperature profile (right))

Table 3.5.Australia agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April 2019-July 2019

Table 3.6.Australia agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA/5YA, April 2019-July 2019