The harvest of summer crops (maize, soybean and rice) was almost concluded except for maize in north-eastern regions. Wheat was sown in April to May and was approaching peak growing stage. Overall crop condition in Brazil remained average compared to the previous five years.

Nationwide, all agro-climatic indicators present generally average conditions with rainfall 2% below average, temperature 0.5℃ above average and radiation 3% above average. Altogether, the potential BIOMSS was 4% above 15YA. According to the seasonal rainfall profile, there was no significant departure either from 15YA often-day rainfall but cumulative rainfall (387mm) was much less than during the previous period (January to April). However, contrasted situations were observed among the nine major agricultural states in the country. Goias, Ceara and Rio Grande Do Sul received above average rainfall (+16%, +8% and +7%, respectively). Parana, Mato Grosso Do Sul and Santa Catarina recorded a precipitation shortfall with 21%, 12% and 9% negative departures of rainfall. Rainfall in Mato Grosso, Minas Gerais and Sao Paulo was close to average. Most of the states presented above average temperature except for Ceara where TEMP was 0.2 degree lower than 15YA. Temperature was significantly above average (+0.9 to +1.2 degree) for the three states southernmost State. Most States recorded above average radiation except for Rio Grande Do Sul and Santa Catarina. Large positive departure of BIOMSS from 15YA (between 6% and 9%) was observed in Parana, Minas Gerais and Mato Grosso Do Sul.

The national NDVI development profile for Brazil presented slightly above average values since April. The peak value for 2019 was also above 5YA and 2018, reflecting likely favorable conditions of the crops. The VCIx map showed high values (>0.8) in most regions of the country except for scattered farmlands in Nordeste and western Rio Grande Do Sul. Nationally, the average VCIx was 0.98 which confirms the favorable conditions assessed based on NDVI profiles. Detailed variations of the crop condition is shown in spatial and temporal pattern of NDVI departures. Below average conditions prevailed in two AEZs: North-eastern mixed forest and farmland and Mato Grosso. Significantly below average NDVI was also observed at some areas in Parana River Basin. Most areas in central to southern Brazil presented above average conditions throughout the monitoring period, indicating favorable output of summer crops. Wheat production offers good prospects in Rio Grande Do Sul considering the favorable agro-climatic conditions as well as the above average agronomic indicators. Almost 100% of the farmland was cultivated according to CALF which is 1% above average.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, eight agro-ecological regions are identified for Brazil. They include the Amazonas, Central Savanna, Coast, North-eastern mixed forest and farmland, Mato Grosso, Nordeste, Parana basin and Southern subtropical rangelands. Over the current reporting period, two zones recorded large departures of rainfall: Southern Subtropical rangelands (+23%, same departure amplitude as the JFMA period) and Coast (-16%). Rainfall for remaining zones was generally less than during the previous reporting period (JFMA) with the Central Savanna receiving the lowest rainfall at 202 mm, which is still  7% above 15YA. Temperature was close to average except for Coast (+0.7°C), Parana Basin (+0.6°C) and Southern subtropical rangelands (+1.0°C). The Southern Subtropical rangelands was the only zone with below average radiation (-7%), following the same pattern as during JFMA. Although rainfall in Southern subtropical rangelands was at 642 mm and 23% above average, insufficient radiation hampered the photosynthetic process of the crops. As a result, BIOMSS was 3% below 15YA in in Southern subtropical rangelands while all other zones presented above average BIOMSS.

As reflected by the regional NDVI profiles, generally above average crop condition was observed in Central Savanna, Coast, Nordeste, Parana basin and Southern subtropical rangelands. The NDVI peaks of those zones exceeded both 5YA and 2018 values. The above average NDVI profiles in Nordeste, Parana basin and Southern subtropical rangelands in April to July were also an indication of more late crops being cultivated. Crop condition was below average in Amazonas due to below average rainfall. Significantly below average conditions were also observed in the North-eastern mixed forest and farmland before early May, but crops recovered to average condition thanks to above-average rainfall in May. Mato Grosso presented average agro-climatic and agronomic conditions throughout the monitoring period according the CWAIs and NDVI development profiles. CALF was close to 100% in all zones, indicating high intensity of cropland utilization. Above average CALF compared to 5YA was observed in Central Savanna, Nordeste and Southern subtropical rangelands while all other zones remained stayed at average level. VCIx for each zone was close to national average value except for Southern subtropical rangelands where average VCIx was at 0.91, the lowest value among the zones.

Brazil crop condition,  April to July 2019

(a) Crop calendar of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI_Brazil

(c) Time series rainfall pofile_Brazil

(d) Spatial and temporal pattern of NDVI departures

(e) Maximum VCI

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI_Amazonas

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI_Central Savanna

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI_Coast

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profiles for Northeastern mixed forest and farmland

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI_Mato Grosso

(k) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI_Nordeste

(L) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI_Parana basin

(m) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI_Southern subtropical rangelands

Brazil agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April to July 2019

Brazil agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departures, April to July 2019