The current reporting period covers both the late growth and harvest of winter wheat and the early development of summer crops. 

Compared to the recent 15-years average, the rainfall was low (RAIN -9%) and the temperature was slightly below (-0.4°C), while the radiation was almost average (RADPAR, +1%). The maximum VCI value was 0.94, and the CALF was equal to the recent 5-years average. Due to the drop in rainfall, the potential biomass was slightly below the recent 15-years average (BIOMSS, -1%).

Time series analysis shows that the dekad rainfall was mostly below the average from April to July, which was unfavorable for the growth of winter wheat, while the temperatures were mostly average. NDVI profiles and crop growth were slightly below those of both the last year and recent 5-years average from April to June but equal in July. This could point at poor growth conditions of winter wheat. The VCIx map and spatial NDVI clusters show large areas of low values in the Prairies which could result from poor rainfall in the three main winter wheat production provinces (Alberta -13%; Manitoba -26% and Saskatchewan -24%).

Fortunately, following the average values of agro-climatic and agronomic indicators in July, the growth of summer crops was average as well. As a result, the overall condition of winter wheat in Canada was hardly average, and the summer crops, including the spring wheat, had average early stages. 

Regional analysis

The Prairies (area identified as 53 in the crop condition clusters map) and Saint Lawrence basin (49) are the major agricultural regions in Canada.

The rainfall in the Prairies, the main food production area in Canada, was below average (RAIN 290 mm, -18%), the temperature was somewhat low (TEMP, -0.2°C) and radiation was above average (RADPAR, +3%). According to the NDVI profiles, following a very good start, the condition of winter wheat fell the 5YA in the current reporting, which is likely to lead to a reduction in production. At the same time, the summer crops experienced an average start. These conditions led to the potential biomass being just slightly below the recent 15-years average (BIOMSS -1%).

The agro-climatic indicators in the Saint Lawrence basin were almost average  (RAIN, +2%; RADPAR, -1%)  or slightly below for temperature (TEMP, -1.0°C). The potential biomass was also somewhat below the average (BIOMSS, -3%). The NDVI profiles indicated that the crop condition was similar to the 2018 crop. As in the Prairies, the growth of winter wheat was  poor, while the summer crops had an average start too.

Canada’s crop condition, April-July 2019

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b)Crop condition development graph based on NDVI       (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                         (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Rainfall time series                                                          (g) Temperature time series

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Canadian Prairies region (left) and Saint Lawrence basin region (right))

April – July 2019 Agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA

April – July 2019 Agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA and 5YA