Ethiopia experiences two main agricultural seasons referred to as Meher and Belg. This reporting period corresponds to late Belg which covers all crops harvested before August. Some part of the country use the AMJJ period for land preparation and soil moisture harvesting for the Meher crops. Meher maize is still growing, and other cereal crops such as wheat, teff, and barley have been sown.  At the national level, all the agro-climatic indicators and CALF were close to average. However, the total biomass production was slightly above average: BIOMASS +2%. According to the NDVI-based season development graph, crop condition was above the five years average. The maximum VCI value was recorded at 0. 94.  According to NDVI clusters and profiles, 32.7% of the country experienced favorable crop condition, mostly around the central and northern part of the country which is commonly used for Belg crops. In addition, this area had a favorable maximum VCI ranging from 0.8 to 1.0. Low VCIx and low NDVI indicate that some parts of the southern region suffered unfavorable conditions. In general the CropWatch indicators point at good Belg crops and favorable early Meher conditions.

Regional analysis

The semi-arid pastoral zone, south-eastern Mendebo highlands, south-eastern mixed-maize zone, western mixed maize regions, and central-northern maize teff highlands are the major cereal and grain-producing areas of Ethiopia reported in the analysis below.

The Semi‐arid pastoral zone favors livestock over crops. RAIN and RADPAR dropped below average (RAIN ‐10%,  RADPAR -1%) while the temperature was increased (TEMP +0.3°C). Even though the rainfall decreased the  total biomass production increased 13%, possibly due to reduced water demand. Cropped arable land fraction  (CALF) decreased -69% below the recent five‐year average. The maximum VCIx was recorded as 0.66 and  NDVI‐based Crop condition development graphs were below average conditions during the reported period. Farmers in this zone rely on livestock production more than on crops and the increase in BIOMSS is associated with satisfactory range-land.

The South-eastern Mendebo highlands are major maize and teff producing areas. During the reported period, it received 524 mm, below average of rainfall (RAIN, -12%). The temperature remained constant. There was a slight increase in RADPAR and total biomass production by 2% and 4% respectively.  The Cropped arable land fraction (CALF) remained constant compared to the five‐year average. Even though during the reported period the NDVI crop condition development graph was below the five years average, the zone had maximum VCIx of 0.92. In this highland zone, crop prospects are just average.

The South‐eastern mixed maize zone recorded slightly below the average precipitation (RAIN at 427 mm, down 9%) and average temperature ( TEMP  +0.1°C). The RADPAR for this zone was by 2% above average and the BIOMASS index shows an increase of 3%. In central Oromia and eastern Amhara the NDVI development graphs indicate below average crop condition from April to June. However, during July, values rose above average. VCIx averaged 0.92 and CALF increased by 3%.  In general, the crop condition and expected output for this zone are fair.

Maize is the most cultivated crop during the Belg and early Meher seasons in the Western mixed maize zone. Belg maize is still growing and early Meher maize is being planted. The total amount of rainfall reached 1138 mm, which corresponds to a drop of RAIN 9% below average. TEMP was below average as well (-0.2°C) and RADPAR decreased 2%. Expected BIOMSS output is unaffected. The NDVI profiles were below average from April to  June but improved slightly in July. Based mainly on the rather high VCIx at 0.96%, crop condition is assessed as average.

 During the reporting period, some of the  CropWatch agronomic indicators were below  average or average in the Central‐northern maize‐teff highlands (RAIN -11%,  RADPAR -1%, TEMP average).  However, the total biomass production underwent a slight increase. The total arable land fraction dropped slightly compared to the average (CALF, -2). NDVI was above average during April and May and below-average from Mid ‐May to June, after which it  rose during July. Combined with a VCIx value of 0.93, the indicators describe fair crop prospects.

Ethiopia’s crop condition, April ‐July 2019

                                                                        (a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                     (c) Maximum VCI

(d)        Rainfall index                                                                 (e) Temprature index

(f) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                          (g) NDVI profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Semi-arid pastoral region (left) and South-eastern Mendebo highlands region(right))

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (South-east mixed-maize region (left) and Western mixed-maize region (right))

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central‐northern maize‐teff highlands)

Ethiopia agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values, and departure from 15YA, April-July 2019

Ethiopia, agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure, April-July 2019