The secondary rice crop is grown from April to August, while the harvest of main rice and maize crops was completed in March. Indonesia experienced comparatively clear weather during this period: temperature was average but rainfall (RAIN -11%) was below average. Radiation (RADPAR +4%) was slightly above average, which increased the crop production potential by about 3%. According to the NDVI development graphs, crop condition was not favorable, especially in mid May, during the planting season of the 2nd rice crop. On 45.4% of the arable land, crop condition was slightly above average. In 25.7% of the cropped area, mostly located in patches on Riau, Sumatra Selatan, Lampung, Kalimantan Barat, Kalimantan Timur and Kalimantan Selatan, crop condition was slightly below average. Negative departures from long-term trends of NDVI were mostly concentrated in West Papua. The area of cropped arable land (CALF) in the country is comparable to the five-year average. Considering the favorable maximum VCIx value of 0.98, the national production is anticipated to be close to the average.

Regional analysis

The analysis below focuses on four agro-ecological zones, namely Sumatra (92), Java (90, the main agricultural region in the country), Kalimantan and Sulawesi (91) and West Papua (93), among which the former three are relevant for crop cultivation. The numbers correspond to the labels in the VCIx and NDVI profile maps.

In all regions, NDVI was below the 5 year average in May, but recovered to close to normal values by late June, except for Java. 

The agro-climatic conditions for Java indicate a significant drop in accumulated rainfall (RAIN -43%) and temperature (TEMP  -0.4℃ ) while radiation (RADPAR +8%) was above average, resulting in a decrease of the biomass production potential in this region (BIOMSS -4%). According to the NDVI development graph, crop condition was below average starting in May, but comparable to last year.  

Rainfall (RAIN -12%)  was below average in Kalimantan and Sulawesi, whereas no departure from the 15YA temperature was observed. Radiation (RADPAR +5%) was above average, leading to a slight increase of biomass production potential (BIOMSS +5%). The NDVI development curve shows that crop conditions had recovered to close to average by late June.

Sumatra experienced average agro-climatic conditions, though rainfall was reduced by 9% compared to average. The radiation and temperature increased 3% and 0.1 ℃, respectively. Biomass production potential (BIOMSS +4%) in this region was close to average. According to the NDVI development graph, crop condition was below the 5-year reference but had recovered by the end of June. Overall, the crop condition in Sumatra was below but close to average.

Considering that all the arable land was cultivated, CropWatch anticipates crop production will be slightly below but close to the average. 

Indonesia’s crop condition, April -July 2019

                                           (a). Indonesia phenology of major crops

(b). Indonesia national level crop condition development graph based on NDVI, comparing the April-July 2019 period to the previous season and the five-year average (5YA(right) and (c)maximum Indonesia VCI for April-July 2019 by pixel(left)

(d)  Indonesia spatial NDVI patterns up to July 2019 according to local cropping patterns and compared to the 5YA (left) and (e) associated NDVI profiles (right)

(f) Sumatra(Indonesia) crop condition development graph based on NDVI (right)  and (g) Java(Indonesia) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(h)  Crop condition development graph based on NDVI_Kalimantan-Sulawesi

Indonesia agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from15YA, April-July 2019

Indonesia agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's value and departure, April-July 2019