The current monitoring period covers the harvest of rabi rice and wheat in April and May, as well as the sowing of maize, kharif rice and soybean. Crop condition as assessed by NDVI dropped below average starting mid May, but recovered to average values in July. 

At the national scale, compared to average, rainfall decreased by 13% while temperature increased by 0.4°C and radiation (RADPAR) by  3%. According to the temperature profiles, values were obviously above average from early May to early June, which was associated with a big heatwave, affecting almost half of the country. BIOMSS was above average (+7%). The VCIx was moderate, with a value of 0.83. However, the values of this indicator vary spatially, with the lowest values (less than 0.5) appearing in northwest and southeast of India (i.e. Rajasthan, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu) and the highest values (greater than 0.8) in the western and northern parts of the country (such as Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat). According to the graph of spatial NDVI patterns, about 59.4% of cultivated areas showed below-average crop condition, mainly located in the southeast and central India, including Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra. The remaining areas, depicting above average conditions, were located in western and northern India (i.e. Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat and Rajasthan). These patterns were generally consistent with those of VCIx. While wheat condition was more than satisfactory, the establishment of the kharif (monsoon) season crops suffered from the erratic and delayed start of the season. Considering the above in combination with below-average CALF (-8%), the production of the current kharif crop is estimated to be below average.

Regional analysis

Building on cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions, India is divided into eight agro-ecological zones: the Deccan plateau (94), the Eastern coastal region (95), the Gangetic plains (96), Assam and north-eastern region (97), Agriculture areas in Rajasthan and Gujarat (98), the Western coastal region (99),the North-western dry region (100) and the Western Himalayan region (101).

The Deccan plateau received below-average rainfall (-15%) and above-average temperature (+0.7°C) and radiation (+4%). According to the NDVI time series graph, crop condition was generally below average from April to early July and improved to above average by late July. The BIOMSS increased by 5% as compared to the average. The VCIx was moderate, with a value of 0.84. As CALF significantly declined by 14% compared to average, the crop production is expected to be below average.

The Eastern coastal region recorded near average precipitation (-5%), temperature (+0.4°C) and radiation (+2%). As shown by the NDVI profile, crop condition was generally below average and got worse between April and early July. Fortunately, crop condition improved to average by late July. The VCIx was relatively low (0.72) and the CALF decreased by 16% compared to average. Therefore, the crop output is estimated to be below average.

In the Gangetic plains, rainfall decreased by 14% but temperature and radiation increased by 0.4°C and 2%, respectively, compared to average. Crop condition was generally average over the monitoring period. The BIOMSS was above average (+15%). The VCIx was high at 0.92. On the contrary, the CALF declined significantly by 23%, compared to average.

The Assam and North-eastern region received below-average rainfall (-8%) and temperature (-0.2°C) and above-average radiation (+2%). According to the graph of the NDVI development, crop condition fluctuated largely during this monitoring period. The BIOMSS and CALF were average but VCIx was high (0.98).

In the Agriculture areas in Rajasthan and Gujarat, rainfall decreased 5% compared with average, whereas temperature and sunshine (RADPAR) increased by 0.4°C and 1%, respectively. Crop condition was average from April through early July and improved to be above average after late July, as implied by the NDVI profile. This favorable condition was also confirmed by a very high VCIx (0.96). Based on the above analyses, the crop production of this season is expected to be above average.

The Western coastal region recorded below-average rainfall (-13%), warmer temperature (+0.6°C) and higher radiation (+5%), which led to unfavorable crop condition in the region, as indicated by the graph of NDVI development. The VCIx was moderate (0.80). Considering that CALF declined by 7%, crop production in this region is expected to be below average.

In the North-western dry region, rainfall dropped significantly below average (-65%), while temperature and radiation were average. As shown by the graph of NDVI development, crop condition was generally below average. The VCIx was just 0.37. Additionally, the CALF fell by 93%. The crop production of this season is expected to be well below average.

The Western Himalayan region received below-average precipitation (-17%) and average temperature and radiation. Crop condition was overall average over the reporting period. The BIOMSS was above average (+8%) and the VCIx was relatively high (0.89). However, the CALF declined by 5% compared to average. Overall, the crop production in this region is expected to be average.

India's crop condition, April–July 2019.

(a). Phenology of major crops 

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI  (c) Maximum VCI 

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA      (e) NDVI profiles 

(f) Rainfall profiles                                             (g) Temperature profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Deccan Plateau (left) and Eastern Coastal Region (right))

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Gangatic Plains (left) and Assam and north-eastern regions (right))

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Agriculture areas in Rajastan and Gujarat (left) and Western Coastal Region (right))

(k) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (North-western dry region (left) and Western Himalayan Region (right))

India's agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, currentseason's values and departure from 15YA April-July 2019.

India's agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15Y/5YA, April-July 2019.