This monitoring period covers sowing in May and the main growth period of wheat in Kazakhstan. The national average VCIx was 0.81 and CALF was 6% below the five-year average. At the national scale,  RAIN (+3%) and RADPAR (+2%) were above average, while TEMP was below (-0.7°C. However, July was warmer and drier than usual. The combination of these factors resulted in lower BIOMSS (-4%). As shown by the NDVI development graph, crop condition was generally below the five-average during the entire monitoring period. The NDVI cluster graphs and profiles show that 68.4% of the cropped areas were above average in early June, whereas in July, the best clusters (38.1%) had dropped to close to normal. They are concentrated in East and North Kazakhstan, Almaty, northern parts of West Kazakhstan, northeastern parts of Qaraghandy, southern parts of Zhambyl and South Kazakhstan, as well as small parts of Aqmola and Qyzylorda provinces. Overall, crop condition was close to normal, but not as good as during 2018.

Regional analysis

NDVI for the Northern region was below the five-year average during the reporting months. Among the CropWatch agro-climatic parameters, RAIN (-8%) and TEMP (-0.7°C) were below average, whereas RADPAR was above (+4%). The agronomic indicators show a drop in the BIOMSS index by 3% relative to average. The maximum VCI index was 0.76 and CALF had decreased by 9% in this region. Overall crop prospects are unfavorable.

In the Eastern plateau and southeastern region crop condition was better than the five-year average in late May and close to the average in June and July. RAIN was above (+16%), while TEMP  (-0.7°C) and RADPAR (-1%) were below the fifteen-year average. BIOMSS had decreased by 7% and CALF increased by 4%. The maximum VCI index was 0.95 in this region. Overall, crop conditions are favorable.

Crop condition in the  South region was slightly better than the five-year average from late May to July. RAIN was higher than the recent fifteen-year average (+35%), whereas TEMP (-0.3°C) and RADPAR (-1%) were slightly below the fifteen-year average. The agronomic indicators resulted in an increase of the BIOMSS index by 2% and CALF increased by 19% in this region. The maximum VCI index was 0.90. Crop prospects average or better.

Kazakhstan crop condition, April – July 2019

                                         (a). Phenology of major crops

(b)Crop condition development graph based on NDVI    

(c)Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patternscompared to 5YA                        (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI Northern region

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI  Eastern plateau and southeastern region

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI South region

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI Central non-agricultural region

Kazakhstan agroclimatic indicators by sub-nationalregions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April – July 2019