This reporting period covers the harvest of wheat (April and May), as well as the planting of maize (e.g. in the North-West), rice and soybean, starting in April and May.

The NDVI time series shows below average crop condition at the national scale. RAIN fell 13% compared to average while temperature (+0.1°C) and RADPAR were slightly up (+3%). Rainfall was generally below average from April to July, except for spikes in mid and late May and during late June. Temperature followed the long-term average during the monitoring period. The BIOMSS was below average (-2%). Moreover, the VCIx was relatively low at the national level, with a value of 0.73. Low VCIx values (below 0.5) were distributed in northern and central Mexico (such as Sonora, Chihuahua, Durango and Zacatecas), whereas high values (above 0.8) appeared in the northeastern, southern and southeastern parts of the country, including Coahuila, Oaxaca, Chiapas, Tabasco and Yucatan. Consistent with the pattern of VCIx, 15.6% of cropped areas recorded continuously above average NDVI, mainly over north-eastern and south-eastern Mexico (Coahuila and Yucatan). On the other hand, about 42.8% of the cropped areas displayed below-average conditions in northern and central Mexico: Sonora, Chihuahua, Sinaloa, Durango, Nayarit and Zacatecas. Considering the above analyses and below-average CALF (-5%), the crop production of this season in Mexico was assessed to be below average.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions, Mexico is divided into four agro-ecological regions. They include Arid and semi-arid regions (128), Sub-humid temperate region with summer rains (130),Sub-humid hot tropics with summer rains (131) and Humid tropics with summer rainfall (129).

In the Arid and semi-arid regions, the agroclimatic conditions were average (rainfall -2%; temperature -0.3°C; radiation +3%). According to the NDVI time profile, crop condition was below average, especially from mid June. This is corroborated by below-average BIOMSS (-4%) and a rather low value of VCIx (0.60). As the CALF was 15% lower than average, the crop production during this monitoring period for this region is expected to be well below average.

The Sub-humid temperate region recorded average rainfall, temperature and radiation  (-1%, +0.1°C and +2%, respectively). However, as indicated by the NDVI time series, crop condition was below the 5YA but improved towards the end of this monitoring period. The average VCIx of the regions was 0.80 and CALF was 3% lower than the average. The crop production in this region is expected to be below but  close to average.

In the Sub-humid hot tropics with summer rains, rainfall was significantly below-average  (-16%) while temperature and radiation were near average  (+0.3°C and +4%,respectively). The NDVI development graph differs little from  the one in the two regions above, with continuously below-average crop condition. The BIOMSS and CALF slightly decreased separately by 2% and 1%, respectively, compared to average. The average VCIx in these areas was 0.79. Crops are assessed as just fair.

The Humid tropics with summer rainfall suffered from a 24% decline in rainfall as compared tor average. Average temperature was 0.8°C warmer and radiation up 5%. As shown in the NDVI development graph, crop condition was below average and worsened during April through early May, and improved to be average since late June. Considering the above analyses and average CALF, the production outlook for these regions is estimated to be close to average.

Figure 3.30. Mexico’s crop condition, April-July 2019

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                    (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                       (e) NDVI profiles 

(f) Rainfall profiles                                                  (g) Temperature profiles 

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Arid and semi-arid regions (left) and Sub-humid temperate region with summer rains (right))

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Sub-humid hot tropics with summer rains(left) and Humid tropics with summer rainfall (right)) 

Table 3.55. Mexico’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA,  April-July 2019

Table 3.56. Mexico’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA/15Y, April-July 2019