Myanmar produces maize, rice (two seasons) and wheat as its main crops. They are predominantly grown across the eastern mountains, central plains and the western coastal areas. This monitoring period covers the harvest seasons of maize (April), second rice (April to June) and wheat crops (April to May), as well as the sowing and early growing season of the main rice crop. CropWatch assesses crop condition during this monitoring period as generally fair but below that of 2018 and the average of the previous five years.

Temperature (TEMP) was somewhat above average (+0.8°C) but more significant departures affected RADPAR (+7%) and precipitation (RAIN 23% below average). Reduced precipitation caused below average crop conditions during the whole period: NDVI was below the 5YA average, as shown in the crop condition development graph.  However, insufficient precipitation may have had little impact on the yields of rice, maize and wheat, as they had reached their harvest periods. Biomass actually slightly increased by 2% and crop arable land fraction (CALF) decreased just 1% as compared to their averages. During the monitoring period, the maximum VCI value for the whole country was 0.87.

The spatial distribution of crop condition can be divided into two periods according to the NDVI cluster and profile maps: Before mid-May, the crop condition displayed a consistently declining trend from the average. The condition became mixed after that, when 27.8% of cropland improved to above average. This was for the following States: Northern and southern Mandalay, eastern Magwe, Bago, Yangon and Ayeyarwady. The center of Mandalay State, which accounts for 18.4% of the cropland, deteriorated in June but recovered to average in July. Within the northern Bago State, 15.2% of the cropland displayed negative departure values in mid-June, but had positive values in the other periods. Some scattered cropland over Shan State suffered from bad crop condition during the whole period. The VCIx map shows low values in the central part of the country, which is in accord with the NDVI cluster map.

Regional analysis

Based on the cropping system, climatic zones and topographic conditions, three sub-national agro-ecological regions (AEZ) can be distinguished for Myanmar. They are the Coastal region, the Central plain, and the Hills region.

The three AEZs experienced similar agro-climatic condition as the whole country. Rainfall dropped by 27%, 32%, 18% for the Coast, the Central Plain and the Hills regions, respectively, while temperature was warmer and radiation  (RADPAR) between 5% and 8% higher than the 15YA.

The Coastal region experienced mixed crop condition. NDVI was below average in April and June, but had recovered to normal values by late June. Dry weather may have caused a  5% decrease in biomass of maize.  CALF is 6% above the 5YA average and the maximum VCI value is 0.97 for this region.

As compared to the 15YA, the Central plain had 1.2°C warmer temperatures. The biomass was 2% higher as compared to the 5YA average, whereas CALF was down 8%. NDVI was also below average throughout the entire monitoring period. The average VCIx value is 0.81 for the region.

The Hills region experienced the most favorable conditions among the three AEZs with the smallest drop in precipitation and a temperature increase by 0.7°C and rather high radiation (RADPAR +8%). As a result, the biomass increased by 3% with a full utilization of crop arable land (95% CALF). The maximum VCI value is 0.89 for the region.

Figure 3.30. Myanmar crop condition, April2019 - July 2019

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Cropcondition development graph based on NDVI

(c) Rainfall profile

(d) Temperature profile

(e) Maximum VCI

(f) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to5YA   (g) NDVI profiles

h) Crop condition development graphbased on NDVI (Coastal region (left)and Central plain (right))

(i) Crop condition development graphbased on NDVI (Hill region)

Table 3.73. Myanmar agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April 2019 - July 2019

Table 3.74. Myanmar agronomic indicatorsby sub-national regions, current season's values and departure, April 2019 - July 2019