This monitoring period covers the sowing and growing seasons of main maize in the South and in the North. Both rain-fed and irrigated rice are grown during this period as well. Compared to average, rainfall (RAIN) was 12% lower, whereas the temperature (TEMP) was 0.1ºC warmer and radiation was average. The average of the maximum vegetation condition index VCIx was  0.87.  Although there was less rainfall, there was a slight increment of biomass production potential by 1%. The cropped arable land fraction decreased by 3%. NDVI levels over the reporting period stayed below the five-year average until July, by when they had increased to above average conditions. Based on the maximum vegetation condition index (VCIx), the northwest had unfavorable conditions (especially in Borno and Yobe States), while in the north-eastern region (particularly in Zamfara, Sokoto and Katsina States) and in the South conditions were more favorable. According to the NDVI profiles, 33.3% of the cropped area was above the five year average. Overall, based on CropWatch agro-climatic and agronomic indicators, the crop conditions is assessed as below average during most of the monitoring period, although conditions greatly improved in July.

Regional analysis

Nigeria is divided into four agro-ecological zones (AEZ), based on the cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions. The AEZs are referred to (from north to south and by increasing rainfall) as Sudano-Sahelian zone, Guinean savanna, Derived savanna and Humid forest zone.

The Sudano-Sahelian zone is the driest one out of the four AEZs. It recorded an average amount of 187 mm of rainfall. Temperature was up 0.2ºC and radiation 1% higher than average. The total estimated biomass production  increased by 6%. CALF dropped by -17% as compared to the five year average. According to the NDVI crop condition development graph, the conditions were above the five year average. Overall, based on these indicators, the crop condition in this zone is average.

The Guinean savanna recorded 355 mm of rain, 22% less than the 5 year average. Both temperature (+0.1ºC) and radiation (+1%) were slightly above average. With CALF reduced by -2%, the biomass registered a slight decrease by 1%. The NDVI graph indicates that crop conditions tended to be below average, but recovered to average conditions by July. The maximum VCI for this region was 0.87. Overall, the crop condition for the Guinean savanna was average or just below.

The rainy season in the Derived savanna usually starts between late April (west) and May (east). The  main maize growing season of this AEZ falls into this monitoring period (April to July). The total amount of rainfall was 638 mm (-10%) and the average temperature was 0.1ºC warmer.  Even though there was less rainfall, the calculated total biomass production stayed close to the 5 year average (+2%). CALF remained constant compared to the five-year average. The maximum VCIx was 0.95. However, the NDVI values were below the average for the previous 5 years. Overall, based on the indicators and the NDVI development graph, the crop outlook for the AEZ is about average.

In the Humid forest zone, maize is sown in March, whereas rain-fed rice is planted in March and April. Compared to other regions, the humid forest zone, as indicated by its name, is the wettest one. It recorded 1101 mm of rain (-11%). Temperature did not deviate from the long-term average, but radiation was 4% less, resulting in a slight decrease of biomass production (-3%). CALF (99%) and VCI (0.95) were high. However, the NDVI trend was below average until late June. We therefore expect that the crop conditions were sub-optimal throughout most of the monitoring period.

Figure 3.22. Nigeria crop condition, April-July 2019

                                                               (a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI         (c) Maximum VCI

(d ) Rainfall index               (e) Temprature index

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                 (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Soudano‐Sahelian region (left) and Guinean savanna (right))

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Soudano-Sahelian zone(left) and Humid forest zone (right))

Table 3.53. Nigeria's agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April-July 2019

Table 3.54. Nigeria's agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure, April-July 2019