This reporting period corresponds to the sowing of summer maize and the planting of rice crops, as well as to the harvesting of winter wheat. Crop condition was generally favorable. 

For the whole country, RAIN was 53% above average, while TEMP and RADPAR  were below (-0.7°C and -1% respectively) . The combination of all the agro-climatic indicators resulted in BIOMSS exceeding the 15YA by 18%. Next to drought in Sindh and Balochistan, heavy rainfall caused floods and unfavorable conditions during the harvest period of wheat, for instance in Punjab. So far, summer maize and rice have benefited from the favorable weather conditions, although the fraction of cropped arable land (CALF) decreased significantly by 8% compared with 5YA，which may have a negative effect on summer crop production. 

As shown by the NDVI development graph at the national level, following their favorable condition during the last reporting period, crop conditions were generally above average until late May. The spatial NDVI patterns and profiles show that 52.5% of the cropped areas were above or on average, whereas only 5.8% were consistently below average during the monitoring period. The below average areas were not concentrated in any particular region. However, the trends showed a general negative departure starting in June for all classes. Sowing of maize has started and germination of the crop is satisfactory in Punjab. The Indus river basin (the rice producing areas) has reached average or above average NDVI after transplantation in June. Though below average crop conditions were observed in the three main agricultural areas in July, above average rainfall in the Northern Highland (+44%) and Punjab (+77%) regions, together with irrigation of lower Indus river basin might be beneficial for the development of maize and rice during the growing season.

Regional analysis

For a more detailed spatial analysis, CropWatch subdivides Pakistan into three agro-ecological regions based essentially on geography and agro-climatic conditions: the Northern highlands, Northern Punjab region and the Lower Indus river basin in South Punjab and Sind.

In the Northern highlands, the NDVI development graph shows above average crop condition from April to June. RAIN was 44% above average. RADPAR and TEMP were below average (-3% and -1.2°C respectively) between April and July. The resulting BIOMSS exceeded the fifteen-year average by 5%. The region achieved a rather low CALF of 52%, but it still is 2% above 5YA.  Wheat condition was satisfactory but the harvest may have suffered from heavy rainfall or storms; weather was favorable for the establishment of maize.

Northern Punjab, the main agricultural region in Pakistan recorded very abundant RAIN (77% above average). TEMP was below average by 1.2°C, and the RADPAR departure was -2%. The estimated BIOMSS departure of +10% as compared to the fifteen-year average is probably not so relevant, since this period covers the harvest of wheat and establishment of the maize and rice crops. For wheat, the entire growth period, except for January, had above average NDVI values. But this may not have resulted in higher yields because of high rainfall during harvest. Together with the large VCIx (0.94) and high CALF (72% with an increase of 3%), maize production is promising.

In the Lower Indus river basin in south Punjab and Sind, RAIN was slightly above average by 1%, while TEMP was below average by 0.7°C. RADPAR was on average. Estimated BIOMSS was 24% higher. The VCIx at 0.77 indicates not so favorable crop conditions, but this is to be expected for this period between the harvest of wheat and the establishment of the new crops. Considering that vast majority of land in this region is irrigated, prospects for the newly established crops are promising. But the low CALF (31%), which decreased sharply from the recent 5YA by 21%,  may indicate a drop in production.

Figure  3.23. Pakistan's crop condition, April-July, 2019

                                                           (a).Phenology of major crops

Figure 3.23b. Pakistan national level crop-condition development graph based on NDVI, comparing the April-July 2019 period to the previous season and the five-year average (5YA) and maximum                                                           

Figure.3.23d. Pakistan spatial NDVI patterns up to July 2019 according to local cropping patterns and compared to the 5YA (left) and (e) associated NDVI profiles (right)

Figure 3.23f. crop condition development graph based on NDVI for Lower Indus river basin (Pakistan)

Figure 3.23h.Northern Highland (Pakistan)(right) Northern Punjab (Pakistan) crop condition development graph based on NDVI(left)                                                                              

Table3.55. Pakistan agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April-July 2019.

Table3.56. Pakistan, agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure, April-July 2019.