The monitoring period covers the growth of winter wheat until harvest, as well as the sowing and growth of summer crops, including spring wheat and maize.

During the monitoring period, compared with the average, Poland experienced dry and warm weather,  with abundant sunshine (+5%) and the average temperature at 0.6°C above average. However, Poland had little rain in June and TEMP exceeded the recent maximum, which has stressed crops, particularly when considering that, in addition, the cumulative precipitation during the monitoring period dropped is significantly below average (-22%). Both drought and high temperature occurred mainly from June to early July as shown in the TEMP and RAIN profiles. Initially, soils had favorable moisture contents due to the abundant precipitation in May, and timely rains during mid-July helped recover from the adverse crop growth conditions, resulting in high VCIx at 0.96 and Biomass above the average by 11%. However, NDVI dropped significantly below average in July and returned close to the average at the end of the monitoring period. Cropped land fraction was high at 100% in the whole country. In general, the state of crops in Poland needs close monitoring to assess whether the June drought and temperature records had any lasting effect on production.

REGIONAL ANALYSIS

The country was divided into four zones according to agro-ecological characteristics, including:  (a) the Northern oats and potatoes areas covering the northern half of  West Pomerania, eastern Pomerania and Warmia-Masuria, (b) the Northern-central wheat and sugar-beet area (Kuyavia-Pomerania to the Baltic sea),  (c) the Central rye and potatoes area (Lubusz to South Podlaskie and northern Lublin), and (d) the Southern wheat and sugar-beet area (Southern Lower Silesia to southern Lublin and Sub-carpathia along the Czech and Slovak borders).

Compared to last 15 years, the Northern oats and potatoes area,  Northern-central wheat and sugar-beet area and Central rye and potatoes area recorded much drier and slightly warmer conditions (RAIN: -25%, -24% and -29%; TEMP: +0.7°C, +0.6°C and +0.7°C). After sufficient precipitation in May, the three sub-regions entered a intensely dry and warm spell. During the initial stage of crop growth, due to sufficient soil moisture during the planting period, the crops grew well, which is also reflected by higher BIOMSS (+15%, +13% and +12%, respectively) and favorable VCIx (0.95, 0.94, 0.95, respectively). After the water stressed period of June-July, crop condition recovered due to rainfall during mid and late July, but the extent of the recovery is difficult to assess.

Different from the central and  northern zones, the drought and high temperature conditions were less severe (RAIN -10%, TEMP +0.4°C) in the Southern wheat and sugar-beet area . Precipitation at early crop stages was lower than in the above three sub-regions, but BIOMSS is nevertheless up above average by 7% and VCIx was rather satisfactory at 0.98. The AEZ enjoys the most favorable crop condition in the country and summer crop prospects are promising.

Figure 3.25a. Poland phenology of major crops

Figure 3.25b. Poland national level crop condition development graph based on NDVI, RAIN, TEMP, comparing the April to July 2019 period to the previous season and the five-year average (5YA) and maximum

Figure 3.25c. Poland maximum VCI for April to July 2019 by pixel

Figure 3.25d. Poland spatial NDVI patterns up to July 2019 according to local cropping patterns and compared to the 5YA (left) and (e) associated NDVI profiles (right).

Figure 3.25f. Northern oats and potatoes area (Poland) crop condition development graph based on NDVI, RAIN, TEMP

Figure 3.25g. Northern-central wheat and sugarbeet area (Poland) crop condition development graph based on NDVI, RAIN, TEMP

Figure 3.25h. Central rye and potatoes area (Poland) crop condition development graph based on NDVI, RAIN, TEMP

Figure 3.25i. Southern wheat and sugarbeet area (Poland) crop condition development graph based on NDVI, RAIN, TEMP

Table 3.61. Poland agroclimatic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April - July 2019

Table 3.62. Poland agronomic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's values and departure from 5YA or 15YA, April - July 2019