The rainfall graphs show data until April and July only. No summer rainfall is shown. Two versions for rainfall are shown. One embedded in the text and another on the right side. They are different.

The period from April to July is a time of active crop growth in Russia. Winter crops go through the main development stages. They are usually harvested by the end of July when spring crops and crops with long growing period reach their green biomass peak in July.

Rainfall was mostly below average (-13% nationwide)  and stayed below its 2018 level. There was a significant increase in rainfall in the middle of June when it temporarily exceeded the 15-year maximum. At the national level, TEMP was 0.2°C below average during AMJJ. It increased from early to mid April when it exceeded average but stayed close to its level of 2018. At the end of April it dropped below average but rose in the middle of May to reach the 15-year maximum then returning to average. From June to July temperature stayed below average at  a similar level as in the previous year.  RADPAR was 2% above average and the global BIOMSS was down 1% compared to the average.

At the national level NDVI was below its 5-year average from April to May, but above the previous year's values. In June, NDVI fell below corresponding 2018 values. The main causes for the observed NDVI behavior may be a prevailing overall shortage of rainfall, which was not alleviated by the June spike in rainfall. Positive NDVI departures were observed on 33.7 % of the area mainly in Middle and Western Siberia, Middle Volga, Central and Central Black Earth regions. In 9.1 % of croplands NDVI fell below well below average after June, corresponding mostly to  the main area of winter wheat production. 27.7 % of the area show positive NDVI departures in June and July, mainly in Eastern Siberia and parts of Middle Siberia. 24.7 % of the cropland experienced average conditions throughout the reporting period. This type of NDVI profile is evenly distributed along Russia. The largest negative NDVI departure are observed on 13.9 % of cropland, corresponding mainly to the South Caucasus region and the Ural-Volga-Vyatka area, where the lowest VCIx values occur. Over most of Russian cropland VCI values fall into the range of 0.8-1.

Generally, poor rainfall combined with below average temperature resulted in the shortening of the peak season and general reduction in the biomass production potential. This reflected in the observed decrease of NDVI values in June and July in the main crop growing regions. With close to full cropping (98%) but VCIx at 0.92, CropWatch currently foresees a drop in winter crop output.

Regional analysis

The rainfall shortage is well reflected in regional data. West Subarctic, Middle Volga, North-western, Middle Siberia,Ural-Volga-Vyatka, South Caucasus and Central regions experienced a rainfall shortage with values 14% to 28% below average. The temperature in all these regions (except South Caucasus, Central and  North-western regions) was also below average by values between by 0.1°C and 0.6°C) with the largest departures recorded in West Subarctic and Ural-Volga-Vyatka regions. RADPAR in all considered regions was 1% to 4% above average except in the West Subarctic region where a negative departure of 3% was observed. Due to a combination of low rainfall, low temperature and low RADPAR, the West Subarctic region showed the largest drop in biomass (down 12%). However, VCIx for this region was rather high (0.97), with CALF at 100 %. Similar to the 2018 situation, NDVI fluctuated around the 5-year average. In May it was close to 5-year maximum, but in June it dropped below the 5-year average returning to the 5-year average level in July. Despite average biomass and low RADPAR (3% above average) registered in the Ural-Volga-Vyatka region, rainfall shortage combined with the decrease in temperature resulted in NDVI staying mainly below 5-year average but above the level of the previous year. at the beginning of May NDVI reached 5-year average but then dropped below the level of the previous year. VCI was rather high (0.90). CALF was about 99%. The Middle Volga region showed a 2% drop below average in BIOMSS. This region had the lowest VCIx at 0.88. CALF was about 97 %.  After a slight drop at the beginning of May, NDVI stayed below 5-year average but above the level of the previous year. In June it dropped slightly below the 2018 value. The Central region demonstrated average biomass resulting from average temperature  (+0.1°C above  average) and RADPAR (up 2%). NDVI in April was above 5-year maximum dropping below 5-year average and the level of previous year in June (Figure 9). VCI was 0.97.CALF was about 100 %. Remaining rainfall deficit areas demonstrated an increase in BIOMSS (+1% to +8%) with the highest positive departure in South Caucasus region. VCI varied from 0.89 in South Caucasus region up to 0.98 in North-western region. CALF varied from 97 % in South Caucasus region to  about 100 % in North-western and Middle Siberia region. In spite of the positive BIOMSS departure in the South Caucasus region, NDVI stayed below average and reached the level of the previous year only in the second half of May. In the North-western region, NDVI reached the 5-year maximum from April to June. It subsequently dropped slightly below 5-year average and the level of 2018. In Middle Siberia the rainfall deficit was accompanied by average temperature (0.1°C below average) and RADPAR (+3%). Despite largely unfavorable climatic conditions, biomass remained average, increasing 1% over average. This is reflected in NDVI, which was below 5-year average and the level of the previous year from April till June, reaching the 5-year maximum later in the month and and staying above 5-year average in July.

Central Black Soil and Western Siberia regions showed a rainfall shortage of about 8%, VCIx about 0.95 and CALF of 100 %. Positive anomalies of temperature (+0.3°C above average) and RADPAR (+3%) in the Central Black Soil region resulted in BIOMSS up 4% compared to average. In contrast, Western Siberia region showed negative temperature departure (1.1°C below average) and a BIOMSS reduction reaching 6%. RADPAR was 1% above average. NDVI  of the Central Black Soil region in May was above 5-year maximum dropping below 5-year average and the level of the previous year in June. The behavior is reminiscent of the Central region with a two times higher rainfall shortage and a negative temperature departure. In the Western Siberia region from April till the beginning of May NDVI was below 5-year average and previous year level. In May it increased reaching 5-year maximum. By the end of July NDVI was at 5-year average level. This pattern is close to the Middle Siberia region with higher rainfall shortage and positive biomass departure.

In Amur Krai, North Caucasus and Eastern Siberia regions the rainfall was up to 11% above average. The RADPAR shortage (-1% compared to average) combined with lower temperature (-0.4°C) and excessive rainfall resulted in 8% biomass reduction in Amur Krai. VCI was 0.97.CALF was about 100 %. From April till May NDVI in the Amur Krai was below 5-year average and previous year level. Then it increased up to 5-year average dropping again slightly in June.

In the Northern Caucasus a weak temperature anomaly (+0.3°C) and average RADPAR (-1%)  combined with higher rainfall resulted in BIOMSS exceeding the average by  4%. VCI was 0.89. CALF was 95 %. NDVI increased from the previous year level in April, which was slightly below 5-year average, to above 5-year average in May. By the end of May it dropped back to the level of the previous year and below 5-year average.

In Eastern Siberia RADPAR was 2% above average and BIOMSS was 3% below. VCIx reached 0.97 accompanied  by full cropping (CALF about 100 %). NDVI was generally close to the level of previous year coinciding with 5-year average except in May. at the beginning of May it dropped below previous year's level and in July it reached 5-year maximum. 

a. Crop condition development graph based on NDVI of Russia

b.Time series of rainfall for Russia

c. Time series temperature profile for Russia

d. Maximum VCI

e. Spatial distribution of NDVI profiles

f. Crop condition development graph based on NDVI of West Subarctic region

g. Crop condition development graph based on NDVI of  Ural-Volga-Vyatka region

h. Crop condition development graph based on NDVI of Middle Volga region

i. Crop condition development graph based on NDVI of Central region

j. Crop condition development graph based on NDVI of South Caucasus region

k. Crop condition development graph based on NDVI of North-western region including Novgorod

l. Crop condition development graph based on NDVI of Middle Siberia region

m. Crop condition development graph based on NDVI of Central Black  Soil region

n. Crop condition development graph based on NDVI of Western Siberia region

o. Crop condition development graph based on NDVI of Amur Krai region

p. Crop condition development graph based on NDVI of North Caucasus region

q. Crop condition development graph based on NDVI of Eastern Siberia region

Table 1. Agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April-July 2019 

Table 2. Agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's value and departure from5YA/15YA, April-July 2019