The monitoring period covers the sowing and growth of maize and rice, while the harvesting of wheat was almost concluded by the end of July. Nationwide, RAIN was above average (+17%), and both TEMP and RADPAR were slightly below. The favorable agro-climatic conditions led to average BIOMSS. The NDVI profiles indicate below average crop condition in the whole country, after  an early decrease due to the high temperature in late May to June. High temperature accelerated the maturity of winter crops and may have affected yield formation. The national average VCIx was 0.86, but northern coastal and south-eastern provinces like Mardin and Sanliurfa experienced very promising VCIx values above 1.0: crops over those regions outperformed the best recent  conditions. Central and eastern provinces such as Ankara, Konya and Nevsehir presented low VCIx (< 0.5) which indicates below average crop condition. NDVI spatial departure clustering analysis confirms the spatial pattern of the above mentioned crop condition. Below average NDVI concentrated in central and Eastern regions, while above average NDVI occurred mainly in central and southeastern regions. Overall crop condition did not reach the same level as the previous years. 

Regional analysis 

The  regional  analysis  includes  four  agro‐ecological  zones  (AEZ):  the  Black  Sea  area,  Central  Anatolia,  Eastern Anatolia and Marmara Aegean Mediterranean lowland zone. 

In  the  Black  Sea  zone,  crop condition was generally below average except for late June.  The  temperature  and  rainfall  were close to and above  average, respectively  (TEMP  +0.1℃,  RAIN  +22%),  and  the  radiation  (RADPAR)  decreased  by  1%.  The cropped arable land fraction was 0.98. The average value of VCIx was high at 0.95. The VCIx map shows that most of this region enjoyed VCIx higher than 1.0. The excellent crop condition is also confirmed by the spatial NDVI patterns map.

During this reporting period, the crop condition was below average until middle July in the Central Anatolian plateau. The rainfall （RAIN,  +21%）was abundant, but TEMP was 0.2℃ below the average, resulting in a  slight  decrease  of  BIOMSS  index  (-1%). The  average  VCIx  for  this  region  was  0.83.  The cropped land increased (CALF  up 4%); condition is assessed as fair to average.

In Eastern Anatolia, crop condition was generally below average. TEMP was 0.2℃ below the average. Although rainfall was slightly above average (RAIN +1%), but accumulated rainfall during the monitoring period was only 296 mm, the amount of which wasn't sufficient for the normal growth and development of crops. The unfavorable  climate  condition  led to the decrease  of biomass (BIOMSS  -1%). The CALF decreased slightly compared to the average.  With VCIx at 0.83, crops are average at best.

As indicated by the NDVI profile,  in the Marmara Aegean Mediterranean lowland zone, the crop condition was the best compared to the 5-year average among the four AEZs. The temperature was slightly below average (TEMP -0.4℃),  and so was sunshine (RADPAR ‐1%). VCIx was 0.88 and CALF is up 5%, the largest increase among the four AEZs. Output is expected to be average.

Figure 3.41. Turkey’s crop condition, April ‐ July 2019

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Time series rainfall profile                          (c) Time series temperature profile

(d) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(e) Maximum VCI

(f) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                    (g) NDVI profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Black Sea region (left) and Central Anatolia region (right))

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Eastern Anatolia region (left) and Marmara_Agean_Mediterranean lowland region (right))

Table 3.103. Turkey’s agroclimatic indicators by sub‐national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April ‐ July 2019

Table 3.104. Turkey’s agronomic indicators by sub‐national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, April ‐ July 2019