April to July covers the late growth and harvesting season of winter wheat,  the whole cycle of spring wheat and the key growing stages of maize, soybean, rice and cotton. In general, above average crop growth conditions were observed in the Great Plains, while expectations in the corn belt are significantly below the average due to fallowed cropland.

Globally, the indicators describe wet and cool conditions, with 29% above average rainfall, 0.5℃ lower temperature and 2% below average radiation. Maize, soybean, spring wheat, and rice benefited from replenished soil moisture. With the exception of dry conditions in Washington State (RAIN down 12%), the precipitation was above average in other major crop producing states, especially in Corn Belt: Indiana (+25%), Illinois (+46%), Iowa (+40%), Michigan (+16%), Minnesota (+30%), Missouri (+45%), Ohio (+8%) and Wisconsin (+21%). Abundant precipitation was accompanied by low temperature and a decrease in the amount of photosynthetically active radiation. The temperature drop exceeded 0.5℃ in many states the sunshine deficit varied between 1% and 6%.

The USA displays a complex mix of crop condition when assessed by the maximum vegetation condition index (VCIx) and spatial distribution of NDVI profiles. Above average crop condition with high value of VCIx and positive departure of NDVI was observed in the Great Plains, covering major winter wheat and sorghum zones in the southern Great Plains and spring wheat zones in Northern Great Plains. Some important maize and soybean zones of the United States had significantly below average crop development (VCIx lower than 0.5), including the eastern Corn Belt (from Illinois to Ohio) and Arkansas. The area most affected from May to July covers central Indiana to north-west Ohio. CropWatch compared the NDVI difference between June to July in 2018 and 2019 based on sentinel-2 data: most fallow land was distributed in Indiana and Ohio, with limited patches in north-eastern Illinois (Naperville) and SW Illinois.

CropWatch estimates that 2019 wheat production will increase, while corn and soybean production will be down in 2019.

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI_USA

(c) Time series rainfall pofile_USA

(d) Time series temperature pofile_North-eastern areas

(e) Maximum VCI

(f) Spatial distribution of NDVI profiles

Regional analysis

Corn Belt

Crop condition in the most important maize and soybeans production area of United States was obviously below average. High rainfall (34% above average) combined with low sunshine (RADPAR down 6%) and temperature (1.0°C below average) resulted in a potential biomass drop of 9%. In addition, a lot of fallow land was to be found in the eastern of Corn Belt, especially in the region from Illinois and Indiana to Ohio, an important soybean production zone. The combination of poor yield with reduced is bound to result in a large loss of crop production in this year. 

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI_Corn Belt

(h) fallow land distributed in the corn belt based on sentinel-2 data from June to July in 2018 and 2019

Lower Mississippi

Mississippi, the major rice producer in the USA is also an important maize and soybeans supplier. Crop condition was below average. The rainfall was significantly above average (up 51%), while temperature and radiation were below average (-0.5℃ and -3%, respectively). Changes in precipitation, temperature and radiation result in 1% reduction in potential biomass. In this The maximum vegetation index reached to 0.93, indicating satisfactory crop condition. Some fallow land was observed from the north to the south along the Mississippi river, especially in the region between the southern part of Illinois and eastern part of Arkansa Considering the increase of fallow land, below average production can be expected in this region.

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI_Lower Mississippi

(j) fallow land distributed in the Lower Mississippi based on sentinel-2 data from June to July in 2018 and 2019

Northern Plains

This region is the most important spring wheat producer of the United States, with crop condition significantly above the maximum of the last 5 years. During the growing season, rainfall was 40% above average, while the temperature and radiation were down 1.6℃ and 5%, respectively. The NDVI profile indicates the reached its best condition in June, especially in the region from Dickinson to Bismarck in North Dakota. VCIx at 0.96 confirms the favorable crop condition. Since spring wheat has now reached maturity and CropWatch assesses the crop as above average.

(k) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI_Northern Plains

Southern Plains

This region is one of the main winter wheat, cotton, and sorghum producer of the United States. Crop condition significantly exceeded the 5 years average. Rainfall was 43% above average, while the temperature and radiation were 1.1℃ and 2% below, respectively, resulting in average BIOMSS (-1%). The above 5YA NDVI dropped below average at the time of harvest. The maximum vegetation index was 0.95,  confirming the favorable crop condition. In the region of Northwest part of Texas, the major cotton zone of United States, VCIx was below average. Winter wheat, however, is nearing completion and above average crop production can be expected in 2019 in the Southern Plains.

(l) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI_Southern Plains

South-east

This region is another major cotton zone of United States, and crop condition is close to average. Wet and sunny conditions prevailed over the area with 23% abobve average rainfall, 0.4℃ higher temperature and 3% above average radiation. The good weather resulted in a potential biomass increase of 6%, with most crops in good condition (VCIx at 0.91). CropWatch assessed the production in the South-East as average.

(m) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI_Southeast