Summer crops such as maize and soybean were either at the end of their growing period or had already been harvested, while wheat was at sowing and early growth. The nationwide rainfall was 30% below the 15-year average except at the end of April, corresponds to the end of maize growing period, where the rainfall amount reached the maximum 15-year rains. The temperature was 0.4°C above the 15-year average during the monitoring period and reached the maximum 15-year temperature in May and Jul, the beginning of the wheat season. The RADPAR was 4% above average and the BIOMSS potential fell 10% due to the reduction in rainfall. However, the NDVI graph indicates that the crop condition was above-average and at maximum 5-years values nationwide. The map of NDVI spatial distribution indicates in more details that the condition of only 46% of the cultivated area was above-average. 20% of cultivated areas were below the average at the end of April and then turned to be above the average. These regions were mostly located in Gert Sibande District in Mpumalanga province and Dr Ruth Segomotsi Mompati District in North West province.

The end of April also witnessed the change from above-average to below-average in 24% of the cultivated area; low values persisted until the end of July. These regions are mainly located in the west coast district in Western Cape province. 10% of sparse cultivated areas suffered below average NDVI values throughout the season. The maximum VCI map shows both moderate and satisfactory pixels, corresponding to 0.8 nationwide.

While little can be said for whwea at this early stage, maize suffered water stress and reduced output will ensue.

Regional analysis

CropWatch adopts three agro‐ecological zones (AEZs) relevant for crop production in South‐Africa. The first zone is the Humid Cape Fold mountains, the second zone is the Mediterranean zone, while the third zone is the Dry Highveld and Bushveld maize areas,  by far the most relevant zone in terms of food supply.

In the Humid Cape Fold mountains, the rainfall was 24% below average and the temperature was 0.6°C above average. The time series rainfall profile of the zone confirmed the below-average rains along the monitoring period except at the end of April when the rainfall was above average. The time series profile of temperature indicated that values reached the 15-year maximum at the beginning and the end of the monitoring period. NDVI was above the 5-year average along the monitoring period. The estimated BIOMSS was 3% above the average and the CALF was up 2%. In addition, the maximum VCI was high (0.9).

In the Mediterranean zone, the average rainfall was 17% below average except in some days between June and mid-July, when the rainfall was above-average according to the time series rainfall profile. This period corresponds to the sowing and starts growing of the wheat.  Both RADPAR and BIOMSS were above average (+3%  and +2%, respectively. Temperature was average (13.4°C) crop conditions as assessed by NDVI was above the average. Maximum VCI was low (0.4).While it is still early in the wheat season the current wheat situation does not look promising.

In Dry Highveld and Bushveld maize areas, the rainfall was 36 % below average with temperature up 0.3 °C. The NDVI-based crop development graph for this zone showed above-average conditions during the period (April-July). The RADPAR was 5% above the average, while the BIOMSS was 16% below the average. The maximum VCI for the zone was high (0.9). Since crops have mostly been harvested by April, the current indicators apply but for sparse irrigated crops. 

                                                   (a) Phonology of major crops

  (b) Time series profile of precipitation (left) and temperature (right).

(c) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI          (d) Maximum VCI

(e) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                          (f) NDVI profiles

  (g) Time series profile of precipitation (left) and temperature (right) for Humid Cape Fold Mountains

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI for Humid Cape Fold Mountains

  (i) Time series profile of precipitation (left) and temperature (right) for Mediterranean zone

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI for Mediterranean zone

 (k) Time series profile of precipitation (left) and temperature (right) for Dry Highveld and Bushveld maize areas

(l) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI for Dry Highveld and Bushveld maize areas

Table 3.77. South Africa’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA,  April 2019 -  July 2019.

Table 3.78. South Africa’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure, April 2019 -  July 2019.