Wheat, barley, maize and rice are the main cereals grown in Afghanistan. Most winter wheat is grown in the northern border provinces and harvested in May. Spring wheat was planted between March and April, while maize and rice were planted in June and July respectively. The precipitation in Afghanistan was 67% higher than the average level. Both temperature and sunshine were below average (TEMP 18.6°C, down 0.6°C; RADPAR: 1578MJ/m², down 2%). Adequate precipitation made potential biomass 8% higher than average. The cropped arable land fraction (CALF) increased by 93%, and the maximum vegetation condition index (VCIx) was 0.87. According to crop condition development graphs based on NDVI, the national crop growth was exceeded the average level in the past five years. Crop condition was better than average throughout the reporting period in 8% of crop lands, mainly in the northern part of Badghis. Crop condition exceeded average between April and June, in 17.5% of crop land  mainly in the northwestern part of Faryab, the north-central part of Sari Pul and the border areas of Baghlan, Kunduz and Takhar provinces. Below average NDVI is scatted in I5.9% of crop land. According to the best vegetation condition index (VCIx), the vegetation in the north was better than that in the south. Wheat grew well during the monitoring period and average output is expected.

Regional analysis

CropWatch subdivides Afghanistan into four zones based on cropping systems, climatic zones and topography. They are described below as Dry region, Central region with sparse vegetation, Mixed dry farming and irrigated cultivation region, and Mixed dry farming and grazing region.

The RAIN in the Central region with sparse vegetation was 207 mm, +68%; The TEMP was 14°C, -0.6°C, and the RADPAR was 1598 MJ/m2, -2%. According to crop condition development graph based on NDVI, NDVI was slightly higher than the average level, and the potential biomass decreased by 3%. CALF had increased substantially(+52%), and VCIx was 0.95.

Mixed dry farming and grazing region recorded 111 mm of RAIN, 90% above average, TEMP was 19.7°C , 0.9°C lower average, and the RADPAR was 1616 MJ/m2, 2% below average. According to the NDVI development graph, crop condition was higher than the five-year average and reached the maximum five years value during the monitoring period. CALF in this region more than doubled by remained nevertheless at a very low 21%. VCIx reached 0.98. Crop output will be fair, i.e. average for local conditions but, more importantly, range-land had benefited from the unexpectedly high rainfall.

In the Mixed dry farming and irrigated cultivation region the following indicator values were observed: RAIN 431 mm, +63%; TEMP 16.5°C, -0.6°C; RADPAR 1511MJ/m2, -3%. Potential biomass and CALF in this area were the highest among the four regions. CALF was 76% higher than average. Abundant rainfall and higher CALF improved production prospects in this AEZ, where VCIx reached 1. An excellent crop is expected.

Dry region recorded 99 mm of RAIN, 75% above average, TEMP was 22.6°C,  0.5°C below average, and the RADPAR was 1639MJ/m2, 2% below average. The CALF was 42% higher than the average. VCIx was 0.6, and the potential biomass increased by 25%. Although RAIN in this area was higher than the average level, the rainy season of the Dry region ends in April and the additional water supply has benefited mostly the southern range-land directly or through runoff.

Figure 3.5 Afghanistan’s crop condition, April-July 2019

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI      (c) Maximum VCI 

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                       (e) NDVI profiles 

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central region with sparse vegetation (left) and Mixed dry farming and grazing region(right)) 

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Mixed dry farming and irrigated cultivation region (left) and  Dry region(right))

Table 3.1. Afghanistan’s agroclimatic indicators bysub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April to July 2019

Table 3.2. Afghanistan’s agronomic indicators bysub-national regions, current season's values and departure, April to July 2019