In Belarus the reporting period includes the planting of spring wheat and summer crops until June and the harvest of winter wheat from July.

In spite of a deficit in May and June, the nationwide rainfall amount reached 305 mm, which was just (3%) below average. May was warm with mid-May temperature exceeding average (18℃) by as much as 7℃. As a result, for the AMJJ period temperature was 0.6℃ above average; sunshine (RADPAR) was  5% higher average. BIOMSS increased  by a spectacular 9% above average. Agronomic condition were favorable as well: very good values of VCIx (0.96) and cropped arable land fraction (CALF, 100%) were observed.

The NDVI development graph was generally near the 5-year average with some fluctuation in May and June. The spatial pattern showed diverse patterns. In about 66.4% of cropped area crop condition was close to or above 5-year average. Only 13.6% of cropped areas were 0.1 NDVI units below the average, mostly scattered in the south-east and along the western border. Average national VCIx exceeded 0.8, indicating fair crop prospects in most crop area. Overall, both agro-climatic and agronomic conditions were satisfactory and ensured good winter wheat production and summer crop development.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping system, climatic zones and topographic conditions, regional analyses for four agro-ecological zones (AEZ) are provided, including North Belarus (28), Center Belarus (27) and South-west Belarus (29). 

North Belarus (Vitebsk, northern area of Grodno, Minsk and Mogilev) recorded a minor rainfall deficit (-8%) combined with higher temperature (+0.5℃) and radiation (+5%).  BIOMSS improved 7% above average. The NDVI development curve was above or close to average in April and early May but slightly lower in June. Crop condition is favorable.

The Center Belarus (Grodno, Minsk and Mogilev) experienced average  rainfall but higher temperature (0.6℃) and abundant sunshine (+5%). Potential biomass was up 10%. High CALF (100%) and VCIx (0.96) were also recorded. NDVI curve showed a sudden decrease in early June but quick recovery thereafter. Crop prospects are promising.

All agro-climatic indicators were above-average in South-west Belarus (southern halves of Brest and Gomel regions): rainfall (+4%), temperature (+0.6℃) and radiation (+4%). Agronomic conditions were favorable as well (CALF,100%. VCIx, 0.97) with biomass estimated to increase by 9% above average. The average NDVI development curve suggests the crop condition was fair the output will be at least average.

Figure 3.10. Belarus' crop condition, April - July 2019

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graphbased on NDVI                              (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                                 (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Rainfall time series                                                                                  (g) Temperature time series

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (North Belarus (left), Center Belarus (right) )

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI South-west Belarus

Table 3.11. Belarus agroclimatic indicators by agroecological zones, current season values and departure from 15YA,  April - July 2019.

Table 3.12. Belarus agronomic indicators by agroecological zones, current season values and departure from 5YA/15Ya,  April - July 2019.