The report covers the end of the rainy season and the transition into the irrigated season when the main crops are wheat and horticultural crops. The rainy season cereal harvests (maize, sorghum and millet) were severely affected by water stress due to rainfall deficits as reflected by the reduced NDVI and VCI values over the entire country. Currently grown irrigated crops develop well under low temperatures experienced during this reporting period.

Based on the NDVI profiles, crop development was below the 5-year average during this reported period indicating that the rain-fed crops were seriously affected; as a result the expected national cereal production is down to 2.3 million tonnes, according to national projections. The temperature profile from April to July was below average which was conducive for irrigated winter crops. The maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx) was below 50% mostly in Southern and Western provinces while Eastern, Muchinga, Northern and North Western Provinces experienced VCIx between 0.8 to 1.0. During the peak of the growing season (up to February) rainfall was far below average and insufficient water was available for crop growth. Based on the NDVI departures, Southern, Lusaka, Central and Southern provinces were severely affected. During JFMA,  basically after the rain-fed season, the country has experienced a significant excess of unseasonable precipitation as it recorded 109 mm instead of 65, a 69% increase which has benefited grasslands and irrigated crops.

Regional analysis

Luangwa and Zambezi Valleys and the Western Semi-Arid Plain received less than 50 mm rainfall during the reported period, representing close to 30% increase over average rainfall. Northern High Rainfall Zone received 100% more rain than the average. Though there was increased rainfall during the reported period, the damage to crop growth was already severe due to the earlier experienced rainfall deficits in February and March as reported in the previous bulletin. The Cropped Arable Land Fraction (CALF) was above 80% in all the AEZs; however the highest was in the Northern high rainfall zone, as mentioned above, where the Maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx) reached (0.88) while Luangwa and Zambezi Valleys had the lowest VCIx (0.52). 

The CropWatch indicators show a poor expected cereal harvest which will severely affect national food security especially in the Southern Province, rural Lusaka and western parts of the country, thereby requiring interventions.

a. Phenology of major crops

b: Crop condition development graph based on NDVI - Zambia

c: Time series temperature profile - Zambia

d: Maximum VCI

 e: Time series rainfall profile - Zambia

 f: Spatial distribution of NDVI profiles

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI ( Northern high rainfall zone (left) and Western semi-arid plain (right)) 

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI ( Central (Eastern and Southern Plateau) zone (left) and Luanguwa Zambazi rift valley (right)) 

Table 3.104. Zambia’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April-July 2019.

Table 3.105. Zambia’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure, April-July 2019.