Recovering from the floods which occurred after the Cyclone IDAI in March in the central provinces of Sofala and Manica and Cyclone Kenneth in April in northern of Cabo Delgado province, during the April-July monitoring period, Mozambique was characterized by the growing stages of maize and rice in the Northern region and growing stage of wheat in the south. During the same period, maize and rice for both northern and central regions and wheat were completely harvested by June.

Both Agro-climatic and agronomic indicators did not have significant departures from their averages. After the heavy rain in March and April, both rainfall (-2% below average) and temperature (up 0.3ºC above average) were close to average during the monitoring period. The radiation increased by 1%. Both Biomass and Cropped arable land fraction were at average levels. The maximum VCIx recorded for this period was 0.90.

Nationwide, except for early April, the NDVI development graph indicates above-average crop condition during the entire monitoring period. About average VCIx was observed almost all over the country. Favorable VCIx values are concentrated in the provinces of Nampula, Zambézia, Tete, and northern Inhambane.  According to the NDVI departure clustering analysis, this area corresponds to 52.5% of the total cropped arable land. Crop condition in central provinces of Sofala and Manica was below average due to the effects of the March floods event, amounting to 47.5% of the national cropland area.

Generally, the condition of crops remains favorable in most areas in spite of adverse conditions. 

Regional analysis

According to the cropping system, topography and climate, Mozambique is subdivided into five agro-ecological zones (AEZ), listed as follow: (1) Buzi Basin (2) Northern High-altitude Areas (3) Low Zambezi River Basin (4) Northern Coast and (5) Southern Region.

During the monitoring period, in the Buzi basin, while the radiation increased by about 4%, both rainfall and temperature decreased by 22% and 0.6ºC respectively. The BIOMASS in this region decreased by 5% but CALF remained at 100%. Due floods, crop condition was unfavorable in March but it recovered in early-April. Nevertheless, below average crop conditions persisted for the entire monitoring period. The maximum VCI recorded for this region was 0.88, a fair value.

Both rainfall and temperature decreased from the past fifteen-years average by about 5% and 0.3ºC and the radiation registered a slight increase of 1% in the Northern High-altitude Areas. The BIOMASS and CALF were about average. With the NDVI graph indicating unfavorable crop condition during the entire monitoring period, a maximum VCI of 0.92 was nevertheless observed.

With the decreases on rainfall and temperature (RAIN -8% and TEMP -0.6ºC) and 1% increase in radiation, the Low Zambezi River Basin recorded favorable crop condition throughout the monitoring period. Both BIOMASS and CALF were close to average and the maximum recorded VCI was 0.89.

The Northern Coast Zone registered an increase RAIN by about 16%. The high value was recorded during the month of April. The rainfall profiles for this region show that the amount of  rainfall recorded (77 mm) in April was above both average, the fifteen-years maximum as well as above the recorded rainfall in the same period during the year 2018. The temperature underwent  a drop of about 0.4ºC. These conditions did not impact the BIOMASS which registered a slight decrease of about 1%. The CALF increased by 1%. A satisfactory maximum VCI of 0.92 was observed.

Significant decrease in rainfall (RAIN -39%) was verified in the Southern Region. In his region, both temperature and radiation increased sightly by about 0.2ºC and 4%. A BIOMASS fell by about 2%. CALF was about  average and the maximum recorded VCI was 0.86. For this region, the crop conditions development graph based on the NDVI indicates about average crop conditions compared to the past five-years.

Figure 3.31 Mozambique’s crop condition, April - July 2019

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI; (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA;  (e) NDVI profiles

(f) National time-series rainfall profile

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI-Buzi basin; (i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI-Northern high altitude areas

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI-Lower Zambezi River basin; (k) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI-Northern coast region

(l) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI-Southern region; (m) Time-series rainfall profile - Northern Coast zone

Table 3.53 Mozambique’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April - July 2019

Table 3.54 Mozambique’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA/15YA, April - July 2019