The country has a "short rains" and a "long rains" season. The long-grain crops (mostly maize and wheat) are planted from March to April (late sowing windows) to be harvested in October and November. 

The AMJJ period recorded a slight increase in rainfall, temperature and Biomass (RAIN +5%, TEMP 0.2°C, and BIOMASS +0.2%, respectively). The cropped arable land fraction remained constant and the CALF recorded a slight drop (-4%). The national graph of NDVI development stayed below average until the end of the reporting period.  According to NDVI clusters and the map of NDVI profiles, 32.4% of the country experienced favorable crop condition from May to July. The spatial NDVI patterns indicate that NDVI was below average in many central areas. This spatial pattern is only partially reflected by VCIx, the national average of which reached 0.85, with low values in pastoral areas of the Rift Valley (Laikipia, Nakuru and Trans-Nzioia, where wheat is an important production) but also some Western areas (for instance from Bungoma, where maize and cattle are the mainstays of the agricultural economy). Generally, even though the NDVI was below average, crop condition is assessed as favorable.

Regional analysis

Considering the cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions we divided Kenya into four agro-ecological zones (AEZ): The Coast, Highland agriculture zone, Northern range-lands, and South-west.

The Coast includes the districts of Kilifi, Kwale, and Malindi. During the reported period, all indicators were above average. The total rainfall was recorded as 435 mm, up by 35% compared to average. TEMP and RADPAR were also above average, albeit slightly (0.1°C and +2%). Because of increased rainfall, the total biomass production was also above average by 2%. The NDVI profile was also below average, with marked fluctuations. Throughout the reporting period, maximum VCIx was 0.89 with CALF up 3%. Overall condition were favorable for both livestock and crops in the coastal areas.

In the Highland agriculture zone the total rainfall during the reported period was recorded at 577 mm. The rainfall and temperature were above average by (RAIN +4%; TEMP 0.2°C) respectively. However, the RADPAR remained constant and the total Biomass production decreased by 1%. The maximum VCIx value was recorded at 0.82. The NDVI development curve shows that crop condition was below the five years average with the maximum VCI value at 0.82. Large portions of the arable land in this region have high VCIx values of 0.82 indicating relatively good crop condition. Overall the outlook in the region is favorable.

The Northern range-lands include districts such as Turkana, Samburu, and Baringo. They recorded 302 mm of RAIN, -5% below average, while the temperature slightly rose by 0.3°C. The BIOMASS is up 4% and RADPAR by 2%. The NDVI development curve shows values below the five-year average during the entire monitoring period. The maximum VCI was low compared to other regions at 0.62. The cropped arable land fraction decreased by -13%. Overall, even though it recorded a low VCIx, since the region is mostly pastoral and the total biomass production was increased, prospects are average.

The South-west districts include Kisumu, Migori, Siaya, and Busia. Those districts are major producers of wheat and maize, still growing at the time of reporting. In the south-west, the total amount of rainfall was high (909 mm) which represents, however, a modest increase of 5% above average and led ton even smaller increment in total biomass production (1%). The temperature was just above average by 0.1°C and radiation was average The cropped arable land fraction increased by 4%.  The NDVI time profile showed fluctuations during the monitoring period: below average during April to June and above average during July. The maximum VCI reached 0.95. The expected production is high.

Figure3.26. Kenya's crop condition, April ‐ July 2019.

                                                                 (a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                (c) Maximum VCI

      (d) Rainfall index                                                            (e) Temprature index

(f)  Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                      (g) NDVI profiles 

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Coast(left)and Highland agriculture zone(right))

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Northern range-lands (left) and South-west (right))

Table 3.39 Kenya's agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April - July 2019

Table 3.40 Kenya's agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA/15YA, April - July 2019