Winter wheat was harvested in June and July while summer crops, especially maize, rice, sunflower and soybeans are still in the field. According to the NDVI development graph, crop condition was generally close to the average of the past five years, with some fluctuations. About 11.3% crop in the Northeast showed a deterioration after June, which agrees with the low VCIx in this area. 

The rainfall profile indicates high rainfall over the country in mid-May; nationwide, rainfall (405 mm) was above average (+13%), but it still insufficient from May to June. Temperature peaked from mid June to July, when it reached the 15Y maximum. For the whole reporting period, however, temperature (17.0°C) was slightly below the average (by 0.3°C) and RADPAR was down 3% at 1366 MJ/m². CALF was 100%, BIOMSS increased 4% over average and VCIx was high (0.94). Overall crop condition in the country is satisfactory.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, four sub-national regions can be distinguished for Italy, among which three are relevant for crops cultivation. These four regions are East coast, Po Valley, Islands and Western Italy.

On the East coast, with the exception of abundant precipitation (RAIN up 12%) and low TEMP (-0.8°C), overall conditions were close to average and favorable for wheat:  RADPAR down 3% but BIOMSS up 5%, VCIx at 0.95 and high CALF (0.99) indicating full cropping.  According to the NDVI development graph crop condition surpassed the 5 years average and even the maximum value in April. Average output is expected.

The Po Valley initially recorded low precipitation which delayed Rice planting due to insufficient water for irrigation. For the whole reporting period, however, rainfall exceeded the average (RAIN 13%)  with below average temperature (TEMP -0.4°C) and sunshine (RADPAR -2%) , favorable agronomic indicators (VCIx 0.91 and CALF 100%) and average BIOMSS. The NDVI development graph indicates crop condition below the 5 years average after April, especially from May to June. Based on agro-climatic indicators, close to average output is expected, except in the East where crop condition is unsatisfactory.

In the Islands, with the exception of high RAIN (15%), weather was about average with somewhat low TEMP (-0.4°C) and RADPAR (-2%). BIOMSS nevertheless increased by 11% and the overall condition of wheat was  average: VCIx was 0.91 and CALF reached 0.98. About average output is expected.

The situation in Western Italy is close to the situation in the Po valley ( RADPAR -3%, TEMP -0.4°C, VCIx 0.99 and CALF 100%) except for a small BIOMSS increase (+4%) brought about by a 12% increase in RAIN. The crop condition development graph based on NDVI also indicates mostly above average crop condition and values around the 5 years maximum in April and May. CropWatch expects average production. 

With the mentioned situations, prospects are generally favorable for summer crops due to favorable rainfall. Production of winter wheat may exceed the recent average.

Figure3.24. Italy crop condition, April-July 2019

Figure3.24a. Italy phenology of major crops 

Figure3.24b. Italy national level crop condition development graph based on NDVI,comparing the April-July 2019 period to the previous season and the five-yearaverage (5YA) and maximum

Figure3.24c. Italy maximum VCI for April-July 2019 by pixel

Figure3.24d. Italy spatial NDVI patterns up to July 2019 according to local croppingpatterns and compared to 5YA (left) and (e) associated NDVI profiles (right)

Figure3.24e. East coast (Italy) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure3.24f. Po Valley (Italy) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure3.24g. Islands (Italy) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure3.24h. Western Italy (Italy) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Table3.45  Italy agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, currentseason values and departure from 15YA, April-July 2019

Table3.46  Italy agronomic indicators by sub-national regions , currentseason values and departure from 5YA/15YA, April-July 2019