During the monitoring period, both maize and wheat were either at the end of their growing period or had already been harvested. The rainfall time profile indicates that amounts were persistently below average, which resulted in a nationwide negative rainfal anomaly of 16%. The temperature was 0.9°C below average, in spite of an abnormally warm spell during mid-May when the maize was at the end of its growing period and the harvest of wheat had started. BIOMSS dropped 13% below average due to below average rainfall combined with high RADPAR (up 3% above average). The estimated CALF was 32% below the average, which is very significant.

The NDVI development graph indicates below-average crop conditions during the whole monitoring period. Only one third of arable land (33.1%) has average or slightly above-average NDVI. Remaining cultivated areas had lower than average NDVI, mostly clustered in Souss-Massa and Guelmim-Oued Noun regions in the central and the coastal part of Oriental region. The same regions suffered low VCIx (below 0.5), while the nationwide value was just 0.6.

One fifth of agricultural land is irrigated in Morocco, but it produces about half the output. Therefore, the desciption above - which applies basically to rainfed crops - points at predominantly unfavorable crops, fodder and rangeland production.

Regional analysis

CropWatch adopts three agro‐ecological zones (AEZs) relevant for crop production in Morocco: the Sub-humid northern highlands, the Warm semiarid zone and the Warm subhumid zone.

In the Sub-humid northern highlands, rainfall and temperature were both below average (RAIN -9%, TEMP -0.8 °C). This led to a drastic reduction in BIOMSS (20%), mostly due to increased water demand associated high RADPAR (4% above average). As a result, CALF fell 25% (only 44% of cropland was cultivated). NDVI profiles also indicate below average crop conditions throughout the monitoring period. The  maximum VCI estimated for this zone was moderate (0.7) and prospects are below average for rainfed crops

In the Warm semiarid zone, the rainfall was 26% less than the average and temperature was below average by 0.9 °C as well; RADPAR was 3% above average. The resulting reduction in BIOMSS was 11%. The CALF was just 10%, down 64% from the 5-year average; the maximum VCI for this zone was the lowest (0.5) among the other zones. The NDVI profiles confirm the generall poor or very poor crops.

The Warm subhumid zone recorded a drop below average of rainfall (-14%) and temperature (-1.1°C). The  RADPAR was 3% above average, while the BIOMSS was 17% below the average. The CALF was also below the average by 19%. The crop condition development graph based on NDVI indicated below-average conditions along the growing period and the VCIx estimated was moderate (0.7).

Morocco’s crop condition, April -July 2019

                                                     (a) Phonology of major crops

(b) Time series profile of precipitation (left) and temperature (right).

(c) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI       (d) Maximum VCI

(e) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                          (f) NDVI profiles

(g) Time series profile of precipitation (left) and temperature (right) for Sub-humid northern highlands

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI for Sub-humid northern highlands

(i) Time series profile of precipitation (left) and temperature (right) for Warm semiarid zones

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI for Warm semiarid zones

(k) Time series profile of precipitation (left) and temperature (right) for Warm subhumid zones

(l) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI for Warm subhumid zones

Morocco’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April 2019 - July 2019. 

Morocco’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure, April 2019 - July 2019.