This section analyzes the import and export situation of the maize, rice, wheat, and soybean in the first half of 2019 in China.

Rice

In the first half of 2019, the total import of rice in China was 1.2689 million tons, a decrease of 28.7% compared to the previous year. The imported rice mainly stems from Pakistan, Thailand, and Cambodia, respectively accounting for 31.0%, 29.0%, and 20.2% of imports. The expenditure for rice import was US$660 million. Total rice exports over the period were 1470,400 tons, mainly exported to Egypt, Côte d'Ivoire and Turkey (accounting for 24.7%, 16.1% and 10.3%, respectively). The value of the exports was US$559 million. 

Wheat

In the first half of 2019, Chinese wheat imports totaled 1.7613 million tons, down by 9.8% year-on-year. The main sources include Canada (68.1%) , Kazakhstan(12.1%), and France (7.5%). Imports amounted to US$521 million. Wheat exports (154,700 tons) went mainly to the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (70.5%), Hong Kong (21.7%) and Ethiopia (4.8%). The generated income for wheat export was US$61 million. 

Maize

Maize imports reached 3109,200 tons, an increase of 40.9% over 2018. The main suppliers were Ukraine and Russia, accounting for 98.6% and 1.1% of imports respectively. Imports amounted to US$674 million. The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (81.4%), Canada (10.6%), and Russia (5.8%) were the main destinations of Chinese maize exports, which reached to 8600 tons for a value of US$2.2349 million. 

Soybean

In the first half of 2019, the total imports of soybean in China were down 14.7% to 38265,800 tons. Brazil, the United States and Argentina respectively contributed 71.3%, 15.8% and 6.3%, for a total value of US$15676 million. Soybean exports were 67,400 tons, down by 19.2%.

Trade prospects for major grains in China for 2019

Based on the latest monitoring results, China grain imports are projected to increase. The projections are based on remote sensing data and the Major Agricultural Shocks and Policy Simulation Model, which is derived from the standard GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project).

Rice

According to the result of the model forecast, rice imports and exports will increase by 6.3% and 9.2% respectively in 2019. The global rice market will be basically balanced in supply and demand. International rice prices have further declined. Chinese rice production has declined slightly and imports have maintained a certain scale. It is expected to maintain growth in 2019.

Wheat

According to the result of the model forecast, wheat imports are projected to increase by 5.2%, while exports will decrease by 8.6%.  Global wheat production has further increased, international wheat prices have fallen. But the persistence of wheat price difference at home and abroad still exists, wheat imports in 2018 will decrease slightly in 2019.

Maize

The model forecasts an increase of maize imports (+23.4%) in 2019, while exports decrease 4.4%. Global maize stocks were further reduced, production could not meet demand, thus maize prices will be running at a high level. Maize imports are expected to increase in 2019. 

Soybean

Soybean imports and exports will decrease by 5.6% and 3.1%, respectively. Under the influence of insufficient domestic production and other factors, imports will remain high. Global soyabean supply and demand are loose. The outbreak of swine fever in Africa has affected the demand for soybean in China. In addition, the trade frictions between China dn the United States continue affecting markets. Soybean imports in China will decrease slightly in 2019. 

Figure 4.15. Rate of change of imports and exports for rice, wheat, maize, and soybean in China in 2019