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Authors: 超级管理员 | Edit: Changsheng
Introduction
At the end of July, serious food crises are reported by the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) from Africa and southern Asia. In Africa, the causes vary largely, including civil strife in the Central African Republic [16] and South Sudan [17], civil unrest and the aftermath of three tropical cyclones central-northern Mozambique, as well as drought in southern Mozambique, Eswatini [23], Lesotho [22], southern Zambia [34] and Zimbabwe [41]. In Asia, Yemen [20] remains one of major insecurity hotspots (including food insecurity) next to drought affected Sindh [19] and Balochistan [21] in Pakistan. This is in addition to the long list of countries from central and southern America, northern sub-Saharan Africa and Libya, the Middle-East and South-East Asia where human action, often compounded by inclement climate is the main factor of difficult humanitarian situations.
Food insecurity also continues to prevail in Mozambique as the result of several cyclones between January and May, which destroyed crops and infrastructure, and displaced thousands of people, mostly in central regions, as well as in Malawi and Zimbabwe. This was compounded by poor rainfall which affected the southern provinces and resulted in poor crop outputs. The previous CropWatch report provided detailed information on the impact of cyclones that occurred earlier this year (Desmond in January, but especially Idai in late March). Information on the latest cyclone (Kenneth) is provided below. Nationwide, an estimated 190,000 people are currently in IPC phase 4 (Emergency) and IPC phase 3 (crisis) occurs throughout the country, with about 1.6 million people having difficulties accessing adequate food in 63 districts out of 129. Depending on the assistance received, close to 2 million people may be in a critical situation later this year in Cabo Delgado and the provinces south of and including Zambezia and Tete. [11 to 14, 18]
Drought, heat waves and fires
Prolonged drought and heat waves are reported for many areas, on all continents. While climatologists tend to be cautious when assigning the current situation to climate change, they nevertheless stress that the high temperature is compatible with prevailing scenarios. According to a World Meteorological Organization (WMO) statement “Such intense and widespread heatwaves carry the signature of man-made climate change. This is consistent with the scientific finding showing evidence of more frequent, drawn out and intense heat events as greenhouse gas concentrations lead to a rise in global temperatures” [44,45]. Readers are also referred to the recent revision (2019) by the World Resources Institute of its landmark 2013 AQUEDUCT-2.0 model report, which provides detailed global projections of water shortages [43] confirming recent reports about Cape Town in 2018 and Chennai in 2019 in Tamil Nadu [46 to 48, 49]. An Indian government report estimates that 21 cities will run out of groundwater by 2020 [6].
In the Horn of Africa “short rains” have been scarce between April and July, resulting in poor crops, loss of livestock and high food prices. According to ACAPS [32, 33] about 12 million people are currently severely food insecure in the region. This may increase to 17 million by August, with close to two million people having been displaced due to drought in the region (Figure 5.1) . The situation is aggravated by inter-communal clashes and the difficult recovery from previous droughts (due to the 2016/17 El Niño). According to the International Organization for Migration [37] the region recorded 8 million internally displaced persons in 2018, as well 3.3 million international refugees. Needless to say, the need to deal with the displaced people adds considerable burden to the host countries, to the extent that OCHA was targeting 8.3 million people for assistance in Ethiopia only at the beginning of July [42].
Figure 5.1: Million People in need of assistance, mostly due to prolonged drought, other environmental as well as man-made stresses. Source: modified from http://www.thenewhumanitarian.org/analysis/2019/06/10/drought-africa-2019-45-million-in-need.
Drought has prevailed in the countries of the central American “drought corridor” from February, as a result of the ongoing weak El Niño, affecting Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador and Nicaragua. The shortage of water from mid-June will reduce the Primera harvest in August. ACAPS projects that the food situation will remain tense until early next year [36]. The situation is further made complex by nationally and internationally displaced persons in connexion with the Venezuela crisis.
Siberia has received wide international media attention at the end of July, when about 3 million hectares of land were on fire in the centre and east of the country. Suffocating smoke has affected cities in Western Siberia, the Altai region and the Urals (Chelyabinsk and Yekaterinburg). Summer fires are not unusual in Siberia, but they never reached this year’s extent. Greenpeace estimates that close to 12 million hectares of forest have been lost, with biomass destruction and large CO2 emissions [1].
Very warm weather is also reported from the Arctic and British Columbia at the end of July [4], as well as from France at the end of June [44]. Spain was said to fight the largest forest fires in 20 years as successive heatwaves engulfed Europe. In both countries, some areas passed the 40°C threshold during the last dekad of June [7].
Similarly, India recorded one of the longest heat waves on record during mid June, in parts of north and central India with temperatures exceeding 40°C. Several records were broken in June, including 48°C near Delhi in June and more than 50°C in Rajasthan. Many northern Indian villages ran out of water for themselves and their cattle, creating an exodus of tens of thousands of people. Crops failed due to drought in 80% of districts in Karnataka and 72% in Maharashtra. More than 8 million farmers in these two states are struggling to survive [8, 9]. India is facing the worst water crisis in its history, especially in Tamil Nadu, as mentioned above. At the end of June, the Guardian reported that Chennai, the southern metropolis with a population of 10 million, is the first of them. Recent rain was insufficient to fill the four main reservoirs and to put an end to the worst drought for 70 years [6].
Floods
In addition to southern Asia, which will be mentioned with more detail below, relief agencies have reported numerous episodes of excess and violent precipitation, often accompanied by landslides, which have created loss of infrastructure, houses, crops, death and intense – even if local – suffering. They include heavy rain in Bamako (Mali) on 16 May, killing 16 people; floods at the beginning of June in Tajikistan and in Serbia, affecting more than 1000 households each. Still in early June, floods led to population movements in three counties in Sudan, affecting about 11,000 households by destroying crops and killing livestock. In May and June heavy rains and floods have affected close to 80,000 people in Yemen for several weeks [15]. The United Kingdom was affected as well by floods [2]/
Intense early monsoon conditions have hit southern Asia in throughout July, killing 17 people in Nepal just before mid-July and triggering landslides. As floods developed, about 80,000 people were displaced. According to UNICEF [39] the heavy rainfall, flooding and landslides have killed at least 93 children, and put the lives of millions more at risk. Next to Nepal, abundant rainfall as affected Bangladesh and India [3] with Assam and Bihar among the worst-hit regions (Figure 5.2). Millions were affected: about 4.3 million in Assam while about 100,000 have been forced to seek shelter. In Bihar a further 2.6 million people were hit by flash floods, with many homes quickly submerged in muddy water. [5]
Figure 5.2: The village of Uttarnaybash in Bangladesh has been affected by the heavy flooding that has disrupted the lives of thousands around the country. © UNICEF/UN0328241/Chakma. Source: https://weshare.unicef.org/archive/-2AMZIFJ3B1HG.html
In Myanmar, according to OCHA [40] at least 45,000 people were displaced by flooding in Kachin, Rakhine, Mon and Chin States and Mandalay, Sagaing, Bago and Magway regions. By mid-July rivers were still overflowing, raising concern for downstream areas as water levels will increase all the way to the Irrawaddy Delta and since the monsoon was just starting. The heavy downpour also lead to floods in Mrauk-U Township, Rakhine State, affecting more than 3000 people internally displaced by fighting between the Myanmar Army and the Arakan Army group. They had to be relocated [35]. In Kachin State, according to the State Government, more than 6,200 people have been evacuated to 39 sites in Myitkyina, Bhamo and Shwegu townships as of 13 July. The number of affected people, some of them very vulnerable, is expected to rise significantly as more reports are received and verified [38].
Cyclones
The Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm Fani affected eastern India, Bangladesh and neighbouring areas. It made landfall near Puri (Odisha State in India) on 3 May and reached Bangladesh in a weakened form the next day [29]. Fani left a trail of deadly destruction after passing through hundreds of densely populated, low-lying communities along the Bay of Bengal [10]. About 100 people died in India and Bangladesh. The total damage is close to 2 billion US$. For the agricultural sector, very little reliable information is available. It is noted, however, that April-May (summer crops pre-planting or planting) is usually less affected by strong cyclones than October to December, when the kharif season crops are close to harvest. Reports from Bangladesh, which was relatively little affected compared with India, mention that 70000 Ha were damaged for a total value of about 5 million US$ of paddy (Boro), maize, vegetables and jute. 15 million people were affected in India, where reports stress losses to coconut plantations and shrimp farming, especially shrimp export earnings, which may drop 25%. Unofficial sources state that 200,000 ha of crops were destroyed as well as heavy losses in the poultry sector (38 million birds killed). It may be assumed, however, that the effects of Fani will be felt later this season as seeds may have been lost before planting in June.
Figure 5.3: Track of cyclone Kenneth (21 to 29 April) in north-eastern Mozambique. Modified from [27].
On 25 April, Mozambique was affected by the most intense cyclone that ever made landfall in the country (Intense cyclone Kenneth, [26]) which killed close to 50 people, causing damage in Nampula but especially in Pemba, capital of the north-eastern province of Cabo Delgado (Figure 5.3). 55000 hectares of crops were affected. In Cabo Delgado, many people made vulnerable as a result of cyclone impacts were forced on the roads by insecurity brought about by the Islamic insurrection. Kenneth also affected Comoro Islands, Northern Madagascar, Malawi and Tanzania, but most causalities occurred in Mozambique. The total damage is estimated at 100 million US$, with 60-80% of staple crops destroyed in Comoros [28]. Altogether, however, the damage assigned to Kenneth remains well below the catastrophic impact of Idai, which is estimated to be in excess of two billion UAS$ with casualties close to 1300.
In the USA, hurricane Barry created widespread but relatively benign floods in Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi and Southern Ontario at the beginning of July [50].
References
[1] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jul/31/putin-sends-military-fight-siberia-forest-fires-russia
[16] http://www.ipcinfo.org/fileadmin/user_upload/ipcinfo/docs/IPC_CAR_Snapshot_Final_2019MayOct.pdf
[19] http://www.ipcinfo.org/fileadmin/user_upload/ipcinfo/docs/IPC_Pakistan_Sindh_AFI_2018Oct2019Oct.pdf
[22] http://www.ipcinfo.org/fileadmin/user_upload/ipcinfo/docs/IPC_Lesotho_AFI_2019May2020March.pdf
[23] http://www.ipcinfo.org/fileadmin/user_upload/ipcinfo/docs/IPC_Eswatini_AFI_2019June2020March.pdf
[24] https://www.rescue.org/sites/default/files/document/3391/ircemergencywatchlist2019.pdf
[25] https://www.rescue.org/sites/default/files/document/3391/ircemergencywatchlist2019.pdf
[28] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Kenneth
[29] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Fani
[31] https://watchers.news/2019/05/09/heavy-crop-loss-after-cyclone-fani-hits-bangladesh/
[33] https://www.acaps.org/sites/acaps/files/products/files/20190604_start_acaps_kenya_drought.pdf
[36] https://www.acaps.org/country/nicaragua/special-reports#container-1304
[38] https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/ROAP_Snapshot_190715.pdf
[41] https://news.un.org/en/story/2019/07/1042881
[43] Hofste R W, S Kuzma, S Walker, E H Sutanudjaja, M F P Bierkens, M J M Kuijper, M Faneca-Sanchez, R van Beek, Y Wada, S Galvis-Rodriguez and M F P Boerkens 2019 AQUEDUCT 3.0: updated decision-relevant global water risk indicators. World Resources Institute Technical note. 53 pp.
[44] https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/wp-content/uploads/July2019heatwave.pdf
[47] https://indianexpress.com/article/india/citing-water-shortage-100-chennai-hostels-shut-5787416/
[48] https://indianexpress.com/photos/india-news/chennai-water-crisis-tamil-nadu-kerala-5796447/