Neutral El Nino condition prevail across the Pacific Ocean. Figure 5.7 illustrates the behavior of the standard Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) from July 2018 to July 2019. Sustained positive values of the SOI above +7 typically indicate La Niña while sustained negative values below −7 typically indicate El Niño. Values between about +7 and −7 generally indicate neutral conditions. 

During the current season, SOI decreased sharply from -1.3 in April to -9 in May, then decreased further to -10.4 in June, then increased to -5.6 in July 2019, indicating a neutral El Nino situation.

Figure 5.7. Monthly SOI-BOM time series from July 2018 to July 2019 [1]

The sea surface temperature anomalies in July 2019 for NINO3, NINO3.4, and NINO4 regions were +0.3°C, +0.5°C, and +0.8°C in sequence,  a litter warmer than the 1961-1990 average according to BOM (see Figure 5.8-5.9). Both BOM and NOAA conjecture that the warmer condition indicates a neutral El Niño [2]. CropWatch will keep monitoring the situation.

Figure 5.8. Map of NINO Region [3]

Figure 5.9. July 2019 sea surface temperature departure from the 1961-1990 average [4]

Main Sources:

[1] http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/soi2.shtml

[2] https://www.climate.gov/enso

[3] https://www.climate.gov/sites/default/files/Fig3_ENSOindices_SST_large.png

[4] http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/wrap-up/archive/20190806.ssta_pacific_monthly.png?popup