Harvesting of summer crops and sowing of winter crops took place, for the MPZ as a whole, under cool weather conditions (TEMP 0.7°C below average) with close to average radiation and rainfall (RADPAR -1%, RAIN -2%).

Crop condition was generally somewhat below average over the MPZ, but with regional differences. As indicated by the rainfall profiles, 64.9% of the region experienced below average precipitation throughout this monitoring period, including Poland, southern Belarus, Ukraine, Romania, Moldova, and the Russian Oblasts of Bryansk, Kursk, Orlov, Lipetsk, and Belgorod. However, RAIN was mostly above average in mid-July and August, with a peak nearly 80% above average in the eastern part of West Russia, including the Orenburg and Perm Oblasts,and the Bashkortostan Republic.

Temperature profiles show different patterns between the western and the central and eastern parts of the MPZ. While temperature varied from about average in July to well above average (4.5°C above average) in October in the West, it suffered from significant drops  below average in in August (down 6.0°C) and September (up to 6.5°C) over central and eastern Belarus, eastern Ukraine, and the Oblasts of Bryansk, Kursk, Belgorod, Voronezh, Saratov, Orenburg and Rostov, and the Krays of Krasnodar and Stavropol in Russia. The lowest temperature departure ( a 6.5°C drop) was recorded for the Orenburg Oblast. However, generally warm weather was recorded during late August and early September in Poland, western Belarus, Ukraine, Romania and Moldova.

The agro-climatic condition led to an average biomass potential drop for the MPZ as a whole (BIOMSS, -7% compared to the five-year average) with a VCIx value of 0.84. The distribution map of the VCIx index, however, shows regional differences and values below 0.8 in southern and eastern Ukraine, parts of Poland, the Krays of Stavropol and Krasnodar and the Oblasts  of Rostov and Orenburg. VHIn basically follows the same spatial pattern.

Almost 94% of the arable land was actually cropped during the reporting period (with CALF just 2% below average). Un-cropped land concentrated in southern Ukraine, eastern Orenburg Oblast, and northeastern Stavropol Kray. The cropping intensity remained stable compared to the recent five-year average. The double-cropping area was mainly distributed in the eastern Krasnodar Kray.

Generally, with most areas showing below average conditions, current prospects of crop production are not promising in the Central Europe to Western Russia MPZ.

Figure 2.6.Central Europe-Western Russia MPZ: Agroclimatic and agronomic indicators, July to October 2019.

a. Spatial distribution of rainfall profiles              b. Profiles of rainfall departure from average (mm)

c. Spatial distribution of temperature profiles     d. Profiles of temperature departure from average (mm)

e. Maximum VCI

f. Cropped arable land

g. Biomass accumulation potential departure

h. VHI minimum

g. Cropping intensity