Wheat, barley, maize and rice are the main cereals harvested in Afghanistan during the reporting period. Winter wheat started to be  planted in October in the northern border provinces (to be harvested in May), while maize, spring wheat and rice were harvested between August and October. RADPAR was close to average, but both rain and temperature were above (RAIN at 55mm, up 75%; TEMP 19.5°C, up 0.6°C). The potential biomass was 3% higher than average. The cropped arable land fraction(CALF) increased by 36%, and the maximum vegetation condition index (VCIx) was 0.86. According to crop condition development graphs based on NDVI, the national crop growth was exceeded the average level of the past five years.Crop condition exceeded 5 year maximum between July and October and was better than average throughout the reporting period in 26.3% of crop lands, mainly in Badghis and the northern part of Hirat. In general, NDVI was close to the average in northern Afghanistan, above average in the northern part of Takhar and below average in 9.7% of crop land scattered over Khost, Paktya and Kunar Provinces. According to the VCIx), the vegetation in the west was better than that in the east. 

Regional analysis

CropWatch subdivides Afghanistan into four zones based on cropping systems, climatic zones and topography. They are described below as Dry region, Central region with sparse vegetation, Mixed dry farming and irrigated cultivation region, and Mixed dry farming and grazing region.

All the AEZs below except the Mixed dry farming and irrigated cultivation region recorded "above average" rainfall. Considering that average rainfall is very low, the large positive departures involve insignificant amounts of water. For instance, in the Mixed dry farming and grazing region, average rainfall is 8 mm over 4 months, so that 22 mm is close to three times the average. The amount of water, however (14 mm) is insignificant, and probably fell in October (when the rainy season starts) at a time when the potential evapotranspiration reaches 160 mm.  The important points are that "above average" stands for "early start of the season" and that rangeland and low lying areas vegetation have benefited before frost sets in.   

RAIN in the Central region with sparse vegetation was 36 mm (+77%), TEMP was 16.0°C (up 0.6°C), and RADPAR was average at 1470 MJ/m2. NDVI was slightly higher than the average, and the potential biomass decreased by 15%. CALF had increased substantially (+73%), and VCIx at 0.8.

The Dry region recorded 29 mm of RAIN, 58% above average, TEMP was 0.9°C below average at 23.0°C and RADPAR was 1487 MJ/m2, 1% below average. The CALF was 66% higher than the average. VCIx was 0.5, and the potential biomass increased by 57%. 

In the Mixed dry farming and irrigated cultivation region the following indicator values were observed: RAIN 94 mm, +73%; TEMP 18°C, +0.5°C; RADPAR 1430 MJ/m2, +1%. CALF (+22%) in this area was the highest among the four regions. Abundant rainfall and higher CALF improved production prospects in this AEZ, where VCIx reached 0.9.

Mixed dry farming and grazing region recorded 22 mm of RAIN, 171% above average, TEMP was 21.0°C , 0.5℃ lower than average, and the RADPAR was 1476 MJ/m2, 1% below average. According to the NDVI development graph, crop condition was higher than the five-year average and reached the maximum five years value during the monitoring period. CALF in this region more than doubled by remained nevertheless very low (0.5%). VCIx reached 1.3. Range-land had benefited from the early rainfall.  So far, everything is proceeding normally.

Figure 3.6. Afghanistan’s crop condition, July to October 2019

(a).Phenology of major crops

(b)Crop condition development graph based on NDVI          (c)  Maximum VCI

(d)Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                    (e) NDVI profiles

(f)Crop condition development graph based on NDVI(central_Sparse_Veg Region (left)and Mixed_Farming_Graze Region (right))

(g)Crop condition development graph based on NDVI(Mixed_Dry_Irrigated Region(left) and Dry (right))

 Table 3.1. Afghanistan’s agro climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July to October 2019

Table 3.2. Afghanistan’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure, July to October 2019