The dry season maize and second rice reached maturity during the monitoring period, while the main rice started  being planted. Sunshine was above average (RADPAR up 8%) and temperature was just average. Although precipitation (RAIN -29%) suffered a significant decrease, potential biomass production was unaffected (BIOMASS+2%). According to NDVI profiles, crop condition was below average in 57.2 % of total cropped areas. In 22.3% of arable land - mostly located in West Kalimantan, Riau and Jambi Provinces - NDVI was slightly below average at first but deteriorated at the end of this monitoring period. Considering that the area of cropped arable land (CALF) in the country is comparable to the five-year average and the VCIx value reached 0.94, the national production is anticipated to be average or slightly below.

Regional Analysis

The analysis below focuses on four agro-ecological zones, namely Sumatra (92), Java (90, the main agricultural region in the country), Kalimantan and Sulawesi (91) and West Papua (93), among which the first three are the most relevant for crop cultivation. The numbers correspond to the labels in the VCIx and NDVI profile maps.

In Java, compared with average weather was dry (RAIN, -88%), cool (TEMP, -0.3℃) and sunny  (RADPAR +7%) was above average. Due to the scarcity of rainfall, biomass production potential suffered a significant decrease of 13%. According to the NDVI development graph and average cropping intensity, crop condition was below 5-year average. Overall, the crop condition in Java was unfavorable.

The weather in Sumatra differed little from the national average: slightly increased temperature (TEMP, 0.4℃) and radiation (RADPAR +9%), and significantly reduced RAIN (-36%) which brought about a decrease in biomass production potential (BIOMSS, +3%). According to NDVI development graphs, crop condition was initially slightly below 5-year average but deteriorated at the end of August. Crop condition in Sumatra is assessed as below average.

Kalimantan and Sulawesi experienced dry conditions with rainfall falling 34% below average, temperature close to average and radiation increasing 9%, which resulted in an increase of biomass production potential by 4% compared to the recent five-year average. As shown in NDVI development graphs, crop condition was below average at the beginning of August and the end of September, and below but close to average at other times. Crop condition in Kalimantan and Sulawesi was slightly below average.

Considering that all the arable land was cultivated, CropWatch anticipates crop condition will be unfavorable.

Figure 3.15a. Indonesia phenology of major crops 

Figure 3.15b. Indonesia national level crop condition development graph based on NDVI, comparing the July-October 2019 period to the previous season and the five-year average (5YA) and maximum 

Figure 3.15c.  Indonesia VCI for July-October 2019 by pixel

Figure 3.15d.  Indonesia spatial NDVI patterns up to October 2019 according to local cropping patterns and compared to the 5YA (left) and (e) associated NDVI profiles (right)

Figure 3.15f. Sumatra crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 3.15g. Java crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 3.15h. Kalimantan and Sulawesi crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 3.15i Time-series temperature pofile_Indonesia and Time-series rainfall pofile_Indonesia

Table 3.32. Indonesia agroclimaticindicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from15YA, July-October 2019

Table 3.33. Indonesia agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's value and departure from5YA, July-October 2018