The current monitoring period covers the vegetative development and flowering of the rainfed Kharif (summer) season crops: maize, rice, and soybean, to be harvested from November. Rabi wheat was planted in October. Crop condition as assessed by NDVI dropped below average starting July, but recovered to average values in October.

At the national scale rainfall was far higher (+40%) than the average, with large spatial differences: Deccan Plateau (+58%), Eastern coastal region (+47%), Gangatic plain (+21%), Assam and north-eastern regions (+4%), Agriculture areas in Rajasthan and Gujarat ( +106%), Western coastal region (+53%), North-western dry region (+145%). Only the Western Himalayan region had close to average precipitation (RAIN down 3%). The 2019 rainy season was one of wettest in recent history, especially since July, and created widespread havoc (refer to section 5.2 on Disasters). Heavy rainfall is probably the main factor behind India's unfavorable crop growth development from July to September. The temperature was average (0.3 ℃ lower than the average) but sunshine was more significantly down (RADPAR -5%).

BIOMSS generally improved over Rajasthan and Gujarat, the North-western dry region and the Western Himalayan region, where rainfall was generally beneficial and less destructive. CALF nevertheless dropped 35% in the in the North-western dry region.

Overall, due to water damage, the condition of rice, maize and soybean was significantly lower than average during this period

Regional analysis

India is divided into eight agro-ecological zones: the Deccan Plateau (94), the Eastern coastal region (95), the Gangatic plain (96), Assam and north-eastern regions (97), Agriculture areas in Rajasthan and Gujarat (98), the Western coastal region (99), the North-western dry region (100) and the Western Himalayan region(101)

The Deccan Plateau region recorded 1621 mm of RAIN (+58% relative to average), 25.1°C TEMP (-0.2°C) and 960 MJ/m² RADPAR (-9%). Biomass tends to the average. The CALF reached 99% which was close to the 5YA, and VCIx was 1.0. But crop condition as assessed by NDVI dropped below average starting July, just recovered to average values in October. Indicates that crops in this region may be affected by heavy rainfall during the rainy season.

The Eastern coastal region recorded 1492 mm of RAIN (+47% relative to average) and 26.1°C TEMP (-0.6°C).The RADPAR of 1020MJ/m²  RADPAR was 8% lower than the average and BIOMASS was 8% below the 15YA. The region recorded 3% lower than average cropped area and a VCIx of 1.0 indicating moderate to good crop condition.

The Gangatic region recorded 1390 mm of RAIN (+20% relative to average), 26.9°C TEMP (-0.1°C) and 705 MJ/m²  RADPAR (-4%). Biomass was close to average with CALF at 98% (1% higher than 5YA slightly) and VCIx at 1.0. But crop condition as assessed by NDVI dropped below average starting July, just recovered to average values in October. In general, the summer crop yield in this region may be lower than the average.

The Assam and North-eastern region recorded 2372mm of RAIN (+4% relative to average) and 23.8°C TEMP (average). The RADPAR of 930 MJ/m² was 2% lower than the average and BIOMASS was 1% below the 15YA. The CALF reached 96% which is nearly the 5YA. Crop condition was good with VCIx at 1.0.

The Agricultural areas in Rajasthan and Gujarat region recorded up to 1749 mm of RAIN (+106% relative to average), 27°C TEMP (-0.4°C) and 982MJ/m²  RADPAR (-9%). The BIOMASS was higher than average by 14%. The CALF recorded 97%, close to the 5YA value, and VCIx was high at 1.0, indicating good production in general. However, this area is the main soybean planting area in India. And soybean production may be affected by heavy rainfall, resulting in significant yield reduction.

The Western coastal region received 53% higher than average rainfall, average TEMP (-0.1℃) and low sunshine (RADPAR 841MJ/m², -10%). This region had 13% lower than average BIOMASS. The CALF recorded 97% which is 5% higher than 5YA, and VCIx was 1.0. But crop condition as assessed by NDVI dropped generally below average, this indicates that the crop production may be below average.

The North-western dry region recorded 145% higher than average rainfall, average TEMP and a minor drop in sunshine (RADPAR 1196MJ/m², down -2%). This region had 27% higher than average BIOMASS. The CALF was just half the arable land of the previous seasons due to a 35% drop (from 85% to 50%), and VCIx was 0.9. Although crop growth in this region was satisfactory, the large reduction in planted area of CALF will cause a drop in production.

The Western Himalayan region received 3% lower than average rainfall, with average TEMP (-0.2℃) and sunshine (RADPAR up 1% to 1197MJ/m²). This region had 9% higher than average BIOMASS. The CALF recorded 99% which is 1% higher than 5YA, and VCIx was high at 1.0 indicating good production in general.

                                                                  (a).Phenology of major crops

   (b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                            (c)  Maximum VCI 

   (d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                              (e) NDVI profiles 

    (f) Rainfall profiles                                                                                       (g) Temperature profiles 

   (h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Deccan Plateau (left) and Eastern Coastal Region (right)) 

   (i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Gangatic Plains (left) and Assam and north-eastern regions (right)) 

   (j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Agriculture areas in Rajastan and Gujarat (left) and Western Coastal Region (right)) 

  (k) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (North-western dry region (left) and Western Himalayan Region (right)) 

Table India’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July - October 2019 

Table  India’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure, July - October 2019