Winter wheat was harvested in July and the 2019-20 crop was sown in October. Summer crop harvest took place in September and early October, sometimes later for rice. According to the NDVI development graph, crop condition was generally above the average of the past five years and almost the same as during the previous season. About 43.1% of arable land in the eastern coastal areas (northern half of the country) and southern Po valley showed average or above-average crop condition. The situation was more mixed in some areas (southern coast ans islands) where VCIx was poor as well (28.4% of arable land).  In the central Po valley (16.9% of areas) crop condition was less than favorable at the beginning of July and August before the harvest of winter wheat but gradually improved as only summer crops remained in the field and the new wheat crop was planted. 

The rainfall profile indicates high rainfall over the country in July and mid-August. Rainfall (343 mm) was just above average (+5%). The temperature profile shows a heat wave from mid-July to August, during which the TEMP exceeded average. Nationwide and for the whole reporting period TEMP and RADPAR were slightly above the average (by 0.7°C and 1%, respectively. CALF was 86% and BIOMSS increased 5% over average; VCIx was about 0.8. Overall crop condition in the country is satisfactory.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, four sub-national regions can be distinguished for Italy: the Eastern coast, Po Valley, the Islands and Western Italy.

On the Eastern coast, with low RAIN (-13%), somewhat high TEMP (+0.9°C) and RADPAR (+3%), overall condition of wheat was average at best: BIOMSS increased by 7% compared with the averages but  VCIx was just fair  (0.78) and CALF fell -29%. Cropping intensity increased (+14%). The NDVI development graph of NDVI exceeds the 5 years average and the previous season values  from July to August, but dropped to the 5 years average after September after the harvest of winter wheat. According to agro-climatic indicators, just average output is expected.

The Po Valley recorded above average RAIN (+10%) and CI (+17%), average temperature (+0.7°C). and RADPAR (0%) with high VCIx (0.91) and CALF (100%). BIOMSS is down 2%. The NDVI development graph indicates that crop condition was better than the 5 years average during this period, and exceeds 5 year maximum in October. Based on agro-climatic indicators, about average output is expected.

In the Islands, RAIN, TEMP and RADPAR exceeded their averages  by 14%, 0.7°C and 1%, respectively. Other indicators were close to their values on the Eastern coast: CI  up 15% and BIOMSS up 11%. VCIx was only 0.62 with low CALF (54%). The crop condition development graph of NDVI indicates values closed to the 5 year average but dropping below September. Generally, output is expected to be average or below.

The situation in Western Italy resembles that of the Po valley: RADPAR +2%, TEMP +0.6°C, CI at 132%, VCIx at 0.88 and CALF close to full cropping (95%). RAIN was average and BIOMSS was up 8%. The NDVI development graph indicates mostly above average crop condition. CropWatch expects fair average production. 

With the mentioned situations, crop prospects are generally average or above for summer crops, but average or below for winter wheat.

Figure3.24. Italy crop condition, July - October 2019

Figure3.24a. Italy phenology of major crops 

Figure3.24b. Italy national level crop condition development graph based on NDVI,comparing the July - October 2019 period to the previous season and the five-year average (5YA) and maximum

Figure3.24c. Italy maximum VCI for July - October 2019 by pixel

Figure3.24d. Italy spatial NDVI patterns up to October 2019 according to localcropping patterns and compared to 5YA (left) and (e) associated NDVI profiles(right)

Figure3.24f. Eastern Italy (Italy) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure3.24g. Northern Italy (Italy) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure3.24h. Southern Italy (Italy) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure3.24i. Western Italy (Italy) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Table 3.45 Italy’s agro-climaticindicators by sub‐national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July- October 2019

Table 3.46 Italy’s agronomicindicators by sub‐national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA,July - October 2019