Summer wheat is normally harvested in September, but due to cold conditions (less than 5°C) in May planting was delayed and the harvest took place in October. In addition, the Selenge-Onon region, which is main agricultural area, experienced a 26% drop in precipitation in June, which has further contributed to the late harvest. TEMP was 3.0°C higher than average at mid September. VCIx was generally above 2018 values.  Low values (<0.5) occur in around 5% of cropped areas, 0.5-0.8 in 15%, 0.8 to 1.0 in more than half of the cropped areas (55%) and >1.0, indicating unusually good crop condition, in 25% of cropland. The national average VCIx was 0.99.

RAIN was above average (+47%) and TEMP was average ( up 0.2°C). RADPAR was just below average (-1%). The combination of factors resulted in a small BIOMSS drop (-2%). NDVI was above 5YA from July to October except at mid of September. Spatial NDVI clusters and profiles show  above average crop condition from late July to September mostly in Khentii, Selenge, Tuv, Bulgan, Hovsgol, eastern parts of Dornod and patches in some cropped western provinces, for a total of 87% of arable land. 

Regional analysis

In the Khangai Khuvsgul region, crop condition was close to the five-year maximum from June to July. Accumulated rainfall was above average (RAIN +50%). TEMP and RADPAR were above by 0.6°C and 1%, respectively. The BIOMSS index decreased by -1% compared to the five-year average. The maximum VCI index was 1.01 and the cropped arable land increased by 2% compared to the five-year average. Overall crop prospects were favorable in this region.

NDVI was above the five‐year average from June to July in the Selenge‐Onon region. RAIN was up 46%, while TEMP was average and RADPAR was slightly low (-1%). The BIOMSS index decreased by 3% below  average. The maximum VCI index was 1.00 and the cropped arable land increased by 2% compared to the five-year average. Overall crop outcome was normal.

The Central and Eastern Steppe Region had above average crop condition, according to the NDVI development graph. Other meteorological variables were above average: RAIN +39%, TEMP +0.6°C, BIOMSS +5%.  RADPAR dropped 4%  below average. The maximum VCI index was 0.92 and cropped arable land increased by 3% compared to the five-year average.

Figure 3.75. Mongolian crop condition, April 2019 – Oct 2019

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b)Crop condition development graph based on NDVI 

(c) MaximumVCI

(d)NDVI departure profile

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI Hangai Khuvsgul Region

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI Steppe Region

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI Selenge-Onon Region

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI Gobi Region

(k) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI Altai Region

Table 3.76. Mongolia’s agroclimatic indicators, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July 2019 – October 2019

Table 3.77. Mongolia’s agronomic indicators, current season's values and departure from 5YA, July 2019 – October 2019