The monitoring period covers the late growth and harvest of maize and rice, as well as the sowing of winter barley and wheat. Crop condition was generally favorable from July to October. RAIN was well above average (+98%), TEMP and RADPAR were below(-0.2°C and-3% respectively). The BIOMSS increased significantly (+29%). The national average of VCIx (0.97) was above average while the fraction of cropped arable land (CALF) increased by a significant 14%.

As shown by the crop nationwide NDVI development graph, crop condition was below average in July but later reached and even exceeded the five-year maximum. According to the spatial NDVI patterns and profiles, 5.2% of the cropped areas presented continous below average conditions during the monitoring period mostly distributed along the rivers. This could be a result of flooding over the areas close to the river due the the excessive rainfall. About 22.2% of cropland, scattered in northern Pakistan, presented below average condition before August but recovered to average by the end of October. The maximum VCI map with a lower-than-0.5 value confirms the situation.  Cropping Intensity by agro-ecological regions ranged from 81% in Northern highland to 157% at Northern Punjab. All are above average by 18% to 34%. 

Regional analysis

For a more detailed spatial analysis, CropWatch subdivides Pakistan into three agro-ecological regions based essentially on geography and agroclimatic conditions: the Lower Indusbasin, the Northern highlands, and the Northern Punjab region.

RAIN was greatly above average (166%,339mm) and TEMP equalled the average in the Lower Indus basin; RADPAR was below average by 3% to the extent that the estimated BIOMSS departure of 33% above average is probably optimistic, considering that the vast majority of crops is irrigated. NDVI was below average in July, and later markedly above.The CALF value of 66% exceeds the 2018 value by 18% and a VCIx of 1.05 also indicates excellent crop condition. Overall, the situation for the region is assessed as very good.

Compared to average, in the northern highland region, RAIN was up 76% and RADPAR and TEMP were low(-3% and -0.7°C respectively). BIOMSS increased 5% over average. The region also showed a low CALF of 61%, but still higher than5YA by 15%. The NDVI profile stayed above average except for July. Overall, the situation for the region is assessed as average or below.

The main agricultural region in Pakistan, Northern Punjab recorded above average RAIN (+65%).TEMP and RADPAR were below average (-1.0°C and -2% respectively). The resulting BIOMSS is 13% above average. CALF in this area reached 83%, which was 7% up compared to 2018, and VCIx was at 1.00. Overall, the crop production potential for the region is deemed to be at least average.

Figure 3.23. Pakistan crop condition, July - October 2019

 (a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI 

(c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                         (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Lower Indus River Basin)

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Northern Highland）

 (h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Northern Punjab) 

Table 3.56. Pakistan agroclimatic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's value and departure, July - October 2019

  Table 3.57. Pakistan agronomic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's value and departure, July - October 2019