The monitoring period covers the harvest of spring and winter wheat, the late growth stages of maize and the planting period of the 2019-20 winter crops. Agro-climatic conditions were close to the average throughout the monitoring period and early stages of the winter crop are satisfactory.

Compared with the average,  precipitation was 7% lower, with temperature and radiation slightly higher by 0.3°C and 3%, respectively;  potential biomass (BIOMSS) was close to the average. In terms of agronomic indicators, compared with the average of the past five years, CALF was close to average (nearly 100%), but VCIx was just fair at 0.79.

Nationwide NDVI from July to August was lower than the average of the past five years, but recovered to close to average levels  after August. After the drought in the previous monitoring period, the precipitation in July and August was still lower than the average. However, from September to October, the precipitation increased and significantly higher than average RAIN was recorded. Temperature fluctuated a lot: there were two heat waves in late August and late October, which exceeded 15 years maximum.

As shown in the spatial NDVI profiles, about 55.3% of the cropland condition was below average before October mainly distributed in the northeast and central parts of the country, and almost 64.4% of cropland condition was above average in October. Only 12.2% of cropland was above average scattered all over the country during the entire period due to the drought from previous period and heat waves in the period. From VCIx maps, value below 0.5 was observed mainly in east and center of the country.

In spite of the initial drought, crop condition is assessed as average.

Regional analysis

CropWatch sub-divides Poland into four zones according to agro-ecological and farming characteristics, including: (a) the Northern oats and potatoes area covering the northern half of West Pomerania, eastern Pomerania and Warmia-Masuria; (b) the Northern-central wheat and sugar-beet area (Kuyavia-Pomerania to the Baltic sea); (c) the Central rye and potatoes area (Lubusz to South Podlaskie and northern Lublin), and (d) the Southern wheat and sugar-beet area (Southern Lower Silesia to southern Lublin and Sub-carpathia along the Czech and Slovak borders).

In all four AEZs CALF was close to 100%, and cropping intensity ranged from 142% to 145%.

Agro-climatic variables of the Northern oats and potatoes area and the Northern-central wheat and sugar-beet area were very close to average (RAIN +4% and +1%, TEMP +0.2°C in both; RADPAR +1% and BIOMSS +1%). NDVI was lower than the average until October in the first region, but close to average from September to October in the second.  

In the Central rye and potatoes area and Southern wheat and sugar-beet area, crop conditions were slightly below the average, due to the continued shortage of rainfall (-9% and -10% respectively). However, with the precipitation picking up in in September and October, the coming season's crop growth conditions are close to average.

Figure 3.25a. Poland phenology of major crops

Figure 3.25b. Poland national level crop condition development graph based on NDVI, RAIN, TEMP, comparing the July to October 2019 period to the previous season and the five-year average (5YA) and maximum

Figure 3.25c. Poland maximum VCI for July to October 2019 by pixel

Figure 3.25d. Poland spatial NDVI patterns up to October 2019 according to local cropping patterns and compared to the 5YA (left) and (e) associated NDVI profiles (right).

Figure 3.25f. Northern oats and potatoes area (Poland) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 3.25g. Northern-central wheat and sugarbeet area (Poland) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 3.25h. Central rye and potatoes area (Poland) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 3.25i. Southern wheat and sugarbeet area (Poland) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Table 3.61. Poland agroclimatic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July - October 2019

Table 3.62. Poland agronomic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's values and departure from 5YA, July - October 2019