July to October is the main harvesting time in Russia: winter crops are harvested from the end of June to the middle of July; spring grain crops have their peak season in July and are mainly harvested at the end of August-beginning of September. September is also the time for the sowing of winter crops. Weather conditions are crucial in this period as they affect not only the state of spring grain crops but also the harvest and the germination of newly sowed winter crops.

According to CropWatch national data, NDVI was below both the 5-year average and the previous year’s level during the monitor period. In September and October, it reached the level of the previous year which coincided with the 5-year average.

Precipitation was above average for most of the period. From July to September it was lower than last year's level, but above the 15-year average. In August, rainfall reached a 15-year maximum. In late August and early September, rainfall began to decline and approached 15-year average.

Temperature was below average and last year’s level at the beginning of the period. By the end of July, there was a sharp drop in temperature. In early August and early September, the temperature was average and comparable to 2018 values. In mid-September, the temperature decreased drastically, but by the end of September and the end of October, it exceeded the average and was close to the level of 2018.

Above average crop condition with VCIx above 0.8 were observed in Middle Volga and Siberia regions as well as in the central part of North Caucasus, where areas with positive NDVI departure prevail. However in main grain producing regions (Central, Central black soil, most of North Caucasus), crop condition was average or below average with VCIx below 0.8 or even below 0.5, with average NDVI or negative departures.

National CropWatch data show that there can be a drop in the yield due to unfavorable weather conditions in peak season. Moreover, abundant rainfall may have hindered the harvesting of both winter and spring grain crops and resulted in some additional yield loss.

Regional analysis

According to regional CropWatch data, the Southern Caucasus recorded a slight drop in temperature (-0.4°C compared to average) and a larger decrease in rainfall (27% below average). RADPAR was 4% above average. As the likely result of favorable sunshine the region showed an increase in biomass (+2%) compared to the 5-year average. VCI was 0.76. CALF was 72%. Cropping intensity was 106%. NDVI declined in early June relative to the 5-year average and the level of the last year. By mid-July, the NDVI had reached the 5-year average, which was followed by a sharp decline again that lasted until mid-September and early October, when the NDVI index values reached last year's value and the 5-year average. A decrease in yield of grain crops is expected in this region.

In the Northern Caucasus rainfall was 5% below average. The temperature was down 0.9°C below average. Despite a slight increase in sunshine (RADPAR up 1% compared to average), large amounts of precipitation and lower temperature, BIOMSS lost 2% compared to average. VCI was 0.81, CALF was 81% and Cropping intensity was 95%. NDVI exceeded the 5-year average and last year's level in July and August. It declined only in early September, but at mid-September it rose again. At the end of October, NDVI exceeded the average for 5 years and became equal to the 2018 values. Yield is expected to be higher than in the previous year.

In Central  Russia, compared to average, rainfall was up 8%, TEMP fell 1.3°C and RADPAR lost 7%. The resulting sharp drop in BIOMSS (-22%) is not confirmed by VCIx (0.94), CALF (99%) and Cropping Intensity (101%). In late July and mid-August, NDVI values were equal to their 2018 levels and the 5-year average. In mid-September, there was a sharp decline in the NDVI, which returned to the 5-year average at the beginning of October. Due to unfavorable weather conditions, decrease in yield can be expected in this region.

In the Central black soils area, there was a drop in rainfall (-7%) and a decrease in temperature (-0.8°C) relative to the 15-year average. At the same time, RADPAR was 2 % higher compared to average. However, due to rainfall deficit and cool temperature, biomass decreased by 11%. below average. CALF was 99 %, VCI 0.81 and Cropping intensity, 102.% At the beginning of July, NDVI was below the 5-year average, but at the end of August, it reached last year's values and the 5-year average. In mid-August, NDVI dropped below 5-year average. Due to unfavorable weather conditions, a decrease in yield can be expected in this region.

In the Middle Volga region, precipitation exceeded average by 22%, with TEMP down 1.4°C and RADPAR down 10%. As a result there was a drop of 20% in biomass compared to the 5-year average. VCI was 0.85, CALF 93 %. and the cropping intensity was 99%. After a decrease in early July, NDVI stayed essentially near the 5-year average. In September, it fell below 2018 values but at the middle of August and at the beginning of October it reached 5-year maximum. Due to unfavorable weather conditions, decrease in yield can be expected in this region.

In the Ural and Western Volga region there was an increase in precipitation by 14% relative to the 15-year average. The temperature decreased by 0.2°C while RADPAR and BIOMSS were essentially average. CALF was about 97%. VCI was 0.89. Cropping intensity was 106. NDVI was below the 5-year average and last year's values till the end of August. In early September, it reached 5-year average and stayed close to this level. Yield is likely to be reduced due to unfavorable weather conditions.

In Eastern Siberia, rainfall exceeded average by 29%. The temperature was about average while RADAR was down 3%. Due to abundant precipitation and low temperature and RADPAR, BIOMSS decreased by 7% compared to average. As to the agronomic indicators, CALF was about 99 %, VCI reached was 0.97 and the Cropping intensity was at 106%. In July, NDVI was below the level of last year. In August it dropped even lower.  In early September, NDVI increased and exceeded last year's level but was still below the 5-year average. In mid-September and October, NDVI dropped again below the level of last year. A decrease in yield is expected due to unfavorable weather conditions.

Rainfall was 4% above average in Middle Siberia while TEMP was only slightly higher (+0.5°C). RADPAR increased 3%. Biomass rose 5% and all agronomic indicators all recorded fair values: CALF 99 %, VCIx 0.97 and Cropping intensity 107%. In July, NDVI reached the 5-year maximum. At the beginning of August it was below the 5-year maximum but above the 5-year average. Since mid-August, the NDVI stayed close to 5-year maximum. Increase in yield is expected in this region.

In Western Siberia, there was a decrease in rainfall by 8% relative to average. The temperature rose relative to average by 1.0°C and RADPAR was up 7% relative to the 15-year average. Despite the lack of rainfall, higher temperature and RADPAR resulted in biomass increase of 14%.  CALF was 99 %, VCIx 0.93 and Cropping intensity was 104%.  NDVI values stayed close the 5-year average and Yield is expected to be close to those of the previous season

Russia phenology of major crops

(a) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI_Russia

(b) Time series rainfall pofile_Russia

(c) Time series temperature pofile_Russia

(d) Maximum VCI

(e) Spatial distribution of NDVI profiles

Country’s agro-climatic indicators by sub‐national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July - October 2019

Country’s agronomic indicators by sub‐national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, July - October 2019

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, Southern Caucasus

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI_Northern Caucasus

Central Russia

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI_Central Russia

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI_Central black soils area

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI_Middle Volga

(k) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI_Ural and western Volga region

(l) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI_Eastern Siberia

(m) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI_Middle Siberia

(n) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI_Western Siberia