This reporting period is the critical growth season of the main rice crop of Thailand, one of the top rice exporters in the world. It is also harvesting time for maize. Crop condition was below last year's and the last 5 years average because of drought.

The rain season starts in May and ends in October. The major water source for rice grown as a lowland crop is rainfall, with limited irrigation. Compared to average, RAIN was significantly down (17%) due to reduced precipitation in July, September and October. TEMP and radiation where both above average (0.3℃ and 7%, respectively), with TEMP peaks (July, September and October) reaching the 15-year maximum, which obviously contributed to the water stress.

The negative affect of drought is displayed in the spatial distribution of NDVI profiles, especially in the central plain and the North-east, which together contribute more than 70% rice of the national rice output. 22.6% of cropland (including the area around Bangkok, Ubon Ratchathani and Nakhon Ratchasima) suffered deteriorating crop growing condition, with the worst situation observed in early September. 31.4% of cropland, mainly in the east of Ubon Ratchathani, also experienced unfavorable conditions, particularly in mid August; although the crop has been recovering, it is still below average.

As an important indicator, VCIx reached 0.94, indicating acceptable crop condition with, as mentioned, severe crop impact in specific locations. CropWatch assesses crop condition in Thailand as below average, with reduced rice output expectations.

Regional analysis

The Central double and triple-cropped rice lowlands is the major rice production zone of Thailand and was suffered from a serious drought during the monitoring period. The agro-climatic indicators indicate that Rain was well below average (28%), paralleled by rising temperature (+0.2℃) and sunshine (+4%). The NDVI development graph shows crop condition staying consistently below average since the sowing of rice in May, which will lead to unfavorable production.

As the whole, the agro-climatic conditions were normal in the South-eastern horticulture area, with slightly below average precipitation (-6%), close to average temperature and a slight reduction in sunshine (-1%).

In the Single-cropped rice north-eastern region, another rice production zone, precipitation was down 8% while sunshine was abundant (up 7%). Crop condition was unfavorable, as reflected by the crop condition development graph based on NDVI. The bad situation started in May but reached its peak in late August.

图.1 7_10_THA

图.X Crop condition development graph based on NDVI_Thailand

Figure 1: Time series rainfall profile of Thailand

Figure 3: Time series temperature profile of Thailand

Figure 4: Spatial distribution of NDVI profiles

Figure 5 Maximum VCI

Figure .6 Crop condition development graph based on NDVI_Central double and triple-cropped rice lowlands

Figure.7 Crop condition development graph based on NDVI_South-eastern horticulture area

Figure .8 Crop condition development graph based on NDVI_Single-cropped rice north-eastern region

Table 1: agro-climatic indicators from July to October, 2019