The reporting period covers the harvest of winter wheat, growth and harvest of maize and rice, and the planting of winter wheat from September to October. During the monitoring period, the NDVI was above the previous five-year average until mid-September. This shows favorable conditions in Turkey. Nonetheless, weather condition were not very favorable. Rainfall was only approximately two thirds of the average (RAIN -30%), temperature was also slightly below the average (TEMP -0.2℃), while more radiation was received (RADPAR, +2%). Due to the shortage of rainfall, biomass was below the average (BIOMSS, -4%). The Cropped Arable Land Fraction increased 3% comparing to the average and the maximum VCI reached 0.81. Cropping intensity indices  indicates high crop land utilization in 2019, with increases between 6% and 18%, according to region). According to the spatial NDVI patterns map, 44.4% of the area enjoyed above average NDVI, mainly in the provinces or Mardin, Sanli Urfa, Malatya, Konya, Aksaray and Karaman.

Regional analysis

The regional analysis covers four agro-ecological zones (AEZ): the Black Sea area, Central Anatolia, Eastern Anatolia and Marmara Aegean Mediterranean lowland zone.

In the Black Sea zone, crop condition was generally close to average for all agro-climatic indicators (RAIN +2%, RADPAR  +2%, TEMP down  0.5℃). The cropped arable land fraction (CALF) was 95%, roughly at the average level. The VCIx was 0.89. CropWatch estimates the output of crops to be satisfactory in this zone.

The Central Anatolian region had below average NDVI after mid-September only, with earlier months above average. Radiation was slightly above average (RADPAR, +1%) while rainfall and temperature were below (RAIN  -38%, TEMP -0.2℃). Based mainly on the NDVI profile and the spatial NDVI patterns in this zone, CropWatch estimates crop conditions was close to average for winter and summer crops.

In the Eastern Anatolian plateau, crop condition was below or close to average. The VCIx map shows that some parts of this region suffered from low VCIx values, which was also confirmed by the spatial NDVI patterns map. The biomass and cropped arable land fraction were both below average (BIOMSS, -11%; CALF, -6%). The production of crops is generally expected to be unfavorable.

As indicated by the NDVI profile in the Marmara Aegean Mediterranean lowland zone, the crop condition was above or close to average during the reporting period. The lack of rainfall (RAIN, -41%) resulted in decreased biomass (BIOMSS, -1%). But the cropped arable land fraction increased 10% (CALF, +10%), meaning more land was cultivated during the monitoring period. In this region, the VCIx was 0.89. Crop prospect of this region is favorable.

Figure 3.40. Turkey’s crop condition, July -October 2019

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                                      (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Black Sea region (left) and Central Anatolia region (right))

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Eastern Anatolia region (left) and Marmara_Agean_Mediterranean lowland region (right))

Table 3.103. Turkey’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July - October 2019

Table 3.104. Turkey’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA and 15YA, July - October 2019