After a brief overview of the agro-climatic and agronomic conditions in China over the reporting period (section 4.1), Chapter 4 presents an updated estimate of major cereals and soybean production at provincial and national level as well as summer crops production and total annual outputs (4.2) and describes the situation by region, focusing on the seven most productive agro-ecological regions of the east and south: Northeast China, Inner Mongolia, Huanghuaihai, Loess region, LowerYangtze, Southwest China, and Southern China (4.3). Section 4.4 presents the results of ongoing pests and diseases monitoring, while sections 4.5 describe trade prospects (import/export) of major crops . Additional information on the agro-climatic indicators for agriculturally important Chinese provinces are listed in table A.11 in Annex A.

4.1 OVERVIEW

Weather was generally favorable in China from July to October 2019, with temperature and radiation increasing above average by 0.3℃ and 4%, respectively,  and rainfall down by 4%.  As a result, the maximum VCI was rather high at 0.95 with the nationwide CALF average 2% above average. These results indicate favorable crop condition in China during this season.

At the regional scale, rainfall was above average by 8% and 36%, respectively, in Inner Mongolia and Northeast China. As shown by Figure 4.1, 9% of planted areas experienced excess rainfall (about 210 mm above average) in early July, including the middle part of Southern China, eastern part of south-western China, and some parts in the Lower Yangtze Region (southeast Guizhou Province, northern Guangxi Province, southern part of Hunan Province, northern part of Fujian, and most parts of Jiangxi and Zhejiang Provinces).

Rainfall was below average in Huanghuaihai (26%), the Loess region (6%), Lower Yangtze Region (13%), and Southern China (2%) which thus suffered from water deficits to varying extents (Table 4.1), mainly around middle August and late September.

In all regions temperatures were close to average, with the positive anomalies not exceeding 0.8°C. However, temperature departures fluctuated widely in most of China over the monitoring period (Figure 4.2). Temperature was more than 2.0°C above average during early and late September, and more than 1.5°C below average in mid-August for 34.8% of planted areas, mainly located in some parts of the Loess Region, Huanghuaihai and North-east China. In addition, temperature in the central part of China and some parts in the Loess Region, accounting for 26.4% of cropped areas, was more than 1.7°C above average during early and late September but more than 0.7°C below average during mid-September and mid-October.

As shown in Figure 4.3, almost all the arable land was cropped, mainly because this monitoring period is the peak of farming in China. According to the maximum VCI map (Figure 4.4), very high values (greater than 1) occurred in north-eastern China and some parts of the Loess Region. The maximum VCI in other regions was also relatively high, with the values between 0.5 and 1. The VHIn map shows that high values (51-100) were mainly located in South-west and North-east China, with moderate values (16-50) appearing in most other regions (Figure 4.5). However, low values (1-15) sporadically occurred in the central part of China (northern Anhui, eastern Hubei province, Shandong province, Jiangsu province and southern Hebei province), implying these areas might have been exposed to drought. The Cropping Intensity (CI) map shows the expected spatial distribution, and all mentioned AEZs have increased CI values relative to the 5YA.

Table 4.1. CropWatch agroclimatic and agronomic indicators for China, July-October 2019, departure from 5YA and 15YA

Figure 4.1. China spatial distribution of rainfall profiles, July-October 2019 

Figure 4.2. China spatial distribution of temperature profiles, July-October 2019

Figure 4.3. China cropped and uncropped arableland, by pixel, July-October 2019

Figure 4.4. China maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx), by pixel, July-October 2019

Figure 4.5. China minimum Vegetation health Index (VHIm), by pixel, July-October 2019 

Figure 4.6. China Cropping Intensity, by pixel, July-October 2019